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Technology Stocks : Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Kirk © who wrote (8587)	1/27/2004 11:00:27 AM
From: Cary Salsberg	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 25522

Hi Kirk, I don't look at PEG for Semi-equips. It seems silly to have 5 year growth rates when the analysts think the upturn will be over in 2005 and the 2005 estimates are in a high state of flux. Of course, the flux means that the PE part of PEG is only slightly more reliable than the G. I listened to the NVLS and ALTR conference calls last night and read the Merrill Lynch comments this morning. I think a short term trader should always short the NVLS conference call. This has been going on for years. Hill always takes a more conservation view of things. NVLS is being clobbered because of the modest bookings forecast for Q1. The market seems to forget that NVLS initialy predicted 5-10% for Q4 2003, revised it to 25% and actually did 28%. Merrill has a "peak" EPS for 2005 of $1.75. They havr a "peak" target of 20-30 times earnings and split the difference at $47. $3.50 times 20 gives my current "peak" target of $70. My longer, slower upturn scenario opens the possibility that 2004 might be slower than current forecasts. That would provide a double whammy to these stocks because 2005 will still be held as the "peak" by the analysts, but they will lower 2005 EPS. I saw a divergence between what ALTR said and what Merrill Lynch reported which supports my belief that analysts have a tenuous grasp of the businesses that follow. I think investors are getting two gifts, today, NVLS and ALTR.