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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: nspolar who wrote (35608)	1/27/2004 12:51:06 PM
From: TRINDY	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 36161

Greetings. Your take on the dollar is very interesting. It contrasts with a guru I subscribe to, Stephen Saville. He has said in a recent newsletter that he thinks that 90% of the long-term move in the dollar has already occurred. He is looking for an intermediate upturn for the next six months or so. Interestingly, he believes that one important reason the dollar has held up is Bank of Japan buying of our bonds with their dollars. With stability in the dollar that he foresees, he thinks that BOJ will stop their Yen support practices, leading to a strengthening of interest rates, leading to a decline in the stock market. I find his views rather surprising, at least on the 90% of the move standpoint. Like you, I think that the dollar is in long-term decline and that it will take a considerable move to bring about any change in trend in our current account deficit. Just thought I would add my 2 cents. Cheers!