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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Madharry who wrote (18563)	1/27/2004 9:35:17 PM
From: Steve168	Respond to of 78535

I think Warren Buffett's asset allocation cycle (some years in cash some other years fully loaded in stocks) is the equivalent (or net effect) of long term market timing - that some years market is overvalued so there is no value stock to buy, other years market is undervalued so there are a lot of stocks to deploy the cash. He evaluate many many stocks in search of bargains - the net effect of him unable to find any stock to buy means market is overvalued. He claims he doesn't care about market, but the market itself is the sum of all stocks he is evaluating, it is the same thing, only that he cares long term, not daily movement, and all us long term value investors agree. My model does not give daily signals, not even monthly, it is usually in a year or two that it gives signal.

To: Madharry who wrote (18563)	1/27/2004 10:39:10 PM
From: TimbaBear	Respond to of 78535

MadHarry I don't know whether BRK (A or B) is a good buy right now or not, so I don't feel qualified to address that issue. However, regarding market timing.... It seems to me that he does not do market timing for the companies and fractions of companies that he buys. But he certainly does appear to play macro movements to some degree. Witness his movement into US Bonds a few years ago and his subsequent exit about 18 months later. Silver comes to mind, as does his recent comments vis-a-vis the falling US dollar. So it seems to me has some portion of his investment capital allocated for deployment in broad sector plays. It seems as though he's also willing to enter into short-term "pick the money up off the ground" type moves occasionally. The Mirant debt purchase about a year ago would strike me as being in that category. Timba