History Favors Kerry, But Geography May Not
By David S. Broder
Washington Post Staff Writer
Wednesday, January 28, 2004; Page A01
John F. Kerry prevailed, Howard Dean survived -- and the Democratic presidential contest between the two New Englanders now moves to a set of southern and border states where many Democrats think John Edwards and Wesley K. Clark may pose new challenges to Kerry's claim on the nomination.
For Kerry, adding New Hampshire to the upset victory he scored eight days earlier in the Iowa caucuses clearly establishes him as the race's front-runner, said the party's chairman, Terence R. McAuliffe. But with nine states on tap next week, from Delaware to Arizona and from South Carolina to North Dakota, McAuliffe said Kerry's opponents "have a little shot" at stopping him.
Kerry's margin over Dean, the former governor of Vermont, was smaller than the one he enjoyed in Iowa. But the senator from Massachusetts demonstrated an appeal to core Democrats as well as independents, based largely on his experience and his potential as a challenger to President Bush. Party officials said his performance should stand him in good stead as the race now expands to a national scale.
The last two Democrats to sweep Iowa and New Hampshire in contested races were Jimmy Carter in 1976 and Al Gore in 2000 -- and both went on to win the nomination.
Donna Brazile, Gore's campaign manager, said that after a few more weeks of infighting, "I think Kerry sweeps them all under the rug. He has shown he can pull the party together, and I don't see any other candidate doing it."
Nonetheless, Dean's camp took comfort from the fact that he showed he could shake off the effects of his disappointing third-place Iowa finish, and his controversial concession speech there, and come back to rally support in the final weekend and close the gap on Kerry in New Hampshire. Exit polls showed Kerry beating Dean by 8 percentage points among the 35 percent of the voters who said they made their choice in the campaign's final three days.
But Kerry backers said they were pleased that Dean may appear to be his chief rival, believing that the Vermonter's appeal, as measured in exit polls, is concentrated among vehement opponents of the Iraq war and a highly educated liberal elite -- two groups that will be less prominent in states such as South Carolina, Missouri, Arizona and Michigan, which now loom on the campaign horizon.
That is emphatically the case in Missouri, the state with the largest contingent of delegates next Tuesday, party leader Roy Temple said. "If this is a two-person race between Kerry and Dean," he said, "there's not much question which way Missouri would go. People are focused on who can win and who can carry this state, and Kerry looks strong."
Donald E. Fowler, a veteran South Carolina Democrat, said: "This strengthens Kerry a great deal, but it does not eliminate Edwards as a viable contender. I see this as an Edwards-Kerry contest now." That was also the view of Rep. Jim Clyburn, the state's senior African American elected official, who added that Edwards may have suffered a bit by failing to edge Clark for third place in New Hampshire.
Arizona Gov. Janet Napolitano (D) said her state "is still a horse race," in part because Clark "has made a big TV push here. But I think Kerry will get a bump up from this."
Ed Sarpolus, a pollster in Michigan, which votes on Feb. 7, four days after the others, said Kerry has tripled his support from the pre-Iowa level and now leads the field with 37 percent of the votes. With Gov. Jennifer Granholm, whose husband is a Kerry supporter, still weighing a possible endorsement, Kerry could move up again, Sarpolus said.
Privately, some Kerry strategists expressed relief that Edwards, the senator from North Carolina, lagged well behind the two leaders last night and apparently lost third place to Clark, after finishing ahead of Dean in Iowa and only a few points behind Kerry. But few Democratic activists in the upcoming states discount Edwards's campaign ability and regional appeal.
"I think Edwards is the sleeper," Brazile said. "More and more, people are looking at him now as the alternative to Kerry."
Both Clark, the retired Army general, and Sen. Joseph I. Lieberman of Connecticut insisted they will continue to compete. But their finishes far behind Kerry and Dean -- in a state they had all to themselves for weeks -- do not augur well for their prospects, leading Democrats said.
But House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) said it will probably be another month before the nomination is certain. "Kerry has been impressive," she said, "but we have to see how this plays out in the rest of the country."
The race's dynamics now change radically from the kind of intense person-to-person campaigning that marked the Iowa and New Hampshire contests to one of mass, multi-state appeal, where financial resources, television skills and organization will play larger roles. Clark's advantage may lie in his substantial treasury, but the political newcomer slumped in the final week in New Hampshire, as he struggled to clarify some of his policy positions. Exit polls showed Edwards gaining on him during the last seven days.
McAuliffe and other Democratic officials said New Hampshire's top three finishers should be able to raise money off their showing. Meanwhile, several questioned how long Lieberman can afford to stay in the race.
Civil rights activist Al Sharpton has been camped in South Carolina, one of seven states voting next Tuesday, and is expected to receive a significant share of the African American vote there. Rep. Dennis J. Kucinich of Ohio is still searching for a constituency to give his long-shot effort a boost.
Democratic officials said the main lesson of last night is that Kerry, the 60-year-old veteran senator, who at the beginning of this month appeared to have frittered away his chance to win by his lackluster campaigning, now has established himself as the man to beat.
In the three decades since the Iowa-New Hampshire tandem was firmly established at the head of the nomination parade, no Republican and only two Democrats have won contested races in both states. Democrats noted that not only were Carter and Gore nominated, but Carter went on to oust an incumbent president, and Gore captured the popular vote.
Bill Carrick, a top strategist for Rep. Richard A. Gephardt of Missouri, who withdrew after finishing fourth in Iowa, said last night that Kerry should be able to compete in all nine states voting on Feb. 3 and 7 and collect enough delegates to dwarf the competition's totals.
Kerry will be helped in Missouri, the state with the largest bag of delegates next Tuesday, by Democratic voters who think their native son Gephardt "is not running because Dean kicked him around," Carrick said.
Others said the growing salience of domestic issues -- especially health care, jobs and education -- works to Kerry's advantage. Exit polls showed Kerry with big leads over Dean -- ranging from 17 to 30 points -- among voters who said one of those topics was most important to them. Dean led him by 4 points among those who gave priority to the war in Iraq.
Kerry's biggest advantage stemmed from the view, expressed by almost three out of five New Hampshire Democratic voters, that he tops the field in having the right experience for the job and can defeat Bush in November.
Polling director Richard Morin, associate polling director Claudia Deane and political researcher Brian Faler contributed to this report.
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