Mandate or Muddle?
Howard Kurtz Media Notes
Tuesday, Jan 27, 2004; 11:19 PM
It took 20 minutes for the cable networks to declare John Kerry the winner after the New Hampshire polls closed, and not much longer to start writing off other candidates.
"Is there any chance General [Wesley] Clark is going to close down his tent early?" Chris Matthews asked on MSNBC.
The question, CNN's Jeff Greenfield said just after 8 p.m., was "who's the comeback kid?" As the night wore on, it didn't seem to be Howard Dean, at least according to the prognosticators.
Robert Novak said on CNN that Dean wouldn't be able to declare himself the comeback kid because he had blown a 20- to 30-point lead in New Hampshire. But "if the media say this is a great comeback, it might be another thing."
In other words, a win -- or a comeback -- or a loss is what the press says it is.
In that case, the media wizards seemed confused last night.
Fox, CBS, CNN and MSNBC projected Kerry around 8:20 p.m., within minutes of each other. But what about the battle for third?
"For John Edwards to get in the ballgame, he can't just eke out a win over Wes Clark with 13 or 14 percent," Howard Fineman said on MSNBC.
"Fifteen percent?" asked Matthews. Maybe, said Fineman, because then he would pick up delegates.
But on Fox, Bill Kristol was dismissive. "Edwards and Clark, their campaigns can spin all they want. . . . I just don't think, frankly, they're going to be very credible candidates."
If Dean could hold the margin of loss to 5 points, CNN's James Carville said, he "has a real credible case to make." Carville, of course, worked for second-place New Hampshire finisher Bill Clinton when he pronounced himself the Comeback Kid and the press bought it.
The Drudge Report Drudge moved a headline on its Web site saying: "JOE LIEBERMAN CONTEMPLATES 'SUSPENDING' HIS CAMPAIGN, TOP SOURCES TELL DRUDGE . . . 'IT'S BECOMING CLEAR THAT IT IS NOT JOE'S YEAR,' TOP CAMPAIGN SOURCE SAYS . . . LIEBERMAN LIKELY TO FINISH 5TH IN N.H. . . ."
On Fox, Democratic pollster Mark Mellman declared Dean "the walking wounded." He works for Kerry.
CNN's Bill Schneider wasn't buying. "New Hampshire may not decide a great deal, with Dean doing pretty well," he said.
MSNBC's Pat Buchanan was more definitive. Dean "cannot be nominated," Edwards is "in deep trouble," and "John Kerry, unless he makes some grievous error, is on his way to the Democratic nomination tonight."
Can't these folks hold a secret meeting or something and make up their minds?
This stuff, by the way, is just beginning. Get ready for an avalanche of punditry about who needs to do what in the seven states with a primary on Feb. 3.
Oh wait, it's starting.
"You really have to win South Carolina, is that correct?" The Washington Post's Bob Woodward asked Edwards on CNN.
"That is correct," the senator said.
What followed was a fascinating bit of electronic jockeying.
Usually the winner comes out last. But Kerry clearly didn't want Dean to claim comeback honors and appeared before his supporters first, at 9:29 -- just in time for the network news on the West Coast. He looked happy as he delivered his attack on drug companies, HMOs and other special interests, punctuated by a trademark "bring it on."
Once Kerry was done, Dean appeared with Matthews on MSNBC and tried the same spin he used after Iowa -- "if you had told me a year ago I'd come in second . . ."
There's usually an unwritten rule that candidates don't come out at the same time so each gets a few minutes in the sun. But suddenly it was rush hour.
At 9:42, Clark made a tactical error. He emerged at the same time as Edwards, and most of the networks blew him off. Very little of Clark's speech was aired by any of the networks. And thanks to some clumsy staging by his staff, who placed two supporters so close behind that they looked down on him, the general appeared small.
Fox and CNN carried Edwards as he launched into his "two Americas" speech. On MSNBC, Matthews asked Dean: "Can you make it to Wisconsin?"
Two minutes later, Dean was being interviewed on Fox. "Does that give you enough steam to come out of here and keep going," Brit Hume asked, or was he "wounded"?
"I think we did well," Dean said. "I'm pleased."
All the networks took Joe Lieberman at 9:53 -- he declared "a three-way split decision for third place," although the polls had him running fifth -- and quickly cut away.
Dean went before the cameras at 10:02 and was very careful not to raise his voice as he gave a strong but controlled version of his stump speech -- to no one's surprise.
The networks stuck with Dean, in part because everyone else had had their turn and in part because he's still the object of media fascination. And maybe no one wanted to miss it if he did something strange. MSNBC broke away after 16 minutes, when he was deep into thanking people, and Fox a moment later. Kerry pulled the curtain on Dean on CNN by popping up for an interview with Wolf Blitzer.
Uh oh -- after the ritual congratulation, Blitzer and Judy Woodruff ask whether Republicans will be able to label him a "Massachusetts liberal" by pointing to votes on taxes and same-sex marriage, among other things. Kerry disputes the L-word. "People are fed up with the labels," he said.
I'm officially declaring that Kerry is in a new phase of his campaign -- the clear, undisputed front-runner, already drawing tougher questions.
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Loaded Question
Tuesday, Jan 27, 2004; 3:35 PM
Are the media biased against Howard Dean?
Those who think so are getting some new ammunition today.
The New Hampshire exit poll that the major networks are using today asks mostly straightforward questions: Are you male or female; white, black or Hispanic; liberal, moderate or conservative? Who did you vote for? When did you decide? Did you pick your candidate because you think he can defeat George Bush or because he agrees with you on the major issues?
But on one of the two questionnaires being used, there's this zinger: "Regardless of how you voted today, do you think Howard Dean has the temperament to serve effectively as president?"
That, of course, raises the possibility that he might not, and the results could be cited endlessly in the primary coverage.
No other question asks for voters' views on Kerry, Edwards, Clark or any other candidate.
Dean spokesman Jay Carson calls it "the do-you-think-he's-a-bad-guy question. It certainly seems a little bizarre."
The survey was drawn up by the National Election Pool, a consortium of ABC, NBC, CBS, CNN, Fox and the AP.
Cathie Levine, a spokeswoman for the network consortium, said:
"We make considered judgments about what to ask in the exit poll. Dean's temperament has been much discussed throughout the campaign. He fell from a significant lead in New Hampshire. Did questions about his temperament after the Iowa speech contribute to that? The exit poll would be remiss if it didn't try to find out."
Ah, so it's a "scream" question.
"These are questions being asked after the voters have cast their ballots and therefore do not influence their decisions," she added. |
