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Strategies & Market Trends : Z PORTFOLIO -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Carl Worth who wrote (11452)	1/28/2004 5:42:38 PM
From: Ron McKinnon	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 11568

Carl, actually your post was well received but the number of comments recently about shorting got to an extreme I always find it interesting the % of people with a long bias funny how a few losses on shorts is criminal but the 95% plus of the people who held during a market turn which saw the NASD fall 75% and many stocks go down 90-100% was not a big issue for many the key to long term gains in the market is results over many many years; not a few days or weeks or months I am the first to admit once in a while I get obsessed by certain stocks generaly over time it pays off but once in a while there is some degree of pain I'm reminded of NVR which was my "thing" for some time that pig hurt on the run but the cover of my remaining long hold few 100 shares for +103 a bit ago was a decent salve for the past wounds days like today where the gains offset a months worth of losses do help a bit though but each of us can learn every day and input from folks like you are a plus clearly though the thrust for most people is to always go long so shorting may not be the thing to be posting here as to DRL they are a great bank I actually did some business with them back in the "old" days hard to argue with a below sector P/E for a niche player a but and hold near 30 would look good

To: Carl Worth who wrote (11452)	1/30/2004 12:37:12 AM
From: Carl Worth	Respond to of 11568

i didn't get a fill on DRL today, so i have no buy price to report <g> here's another stock i like, and would add to the portfolio if i get a fill (i bought this stock at 21.02 earlier today, but as i noted before, i don't always have time to post during the market day, so to be fair i won't add it to my part of the portfolio unless it trades there again, or unless i make a post in real time to add it at whatever price it is at then): CELL - the company is the exclusive distributor of nokia cell phones in the US, and has sales offices in many other countries worldwide...this contract was recently renewed and is now in force through the end of 2005...in addition to nokia, they distribute almost every other major brand of wireless product, and they provide logistics services to manufacturers and network operators the estimate for the current quarter is .34 vs .17 last year and .27 last quarter (last quarter they beat the estimate by .09)...the estimate for 2003 is .85 and for 2004 it is 1.33, a growth rate of over 50% on estimated revenue growth of over 25% the balance sheet is quite nice, with over 6 bucks in tangible book, 61M in cash, and only 5.7M in long term debt the main concern would be that profit margins are low, but the low price/sales ratio seems to take this into account, and as such, they have a reasonable p/e of under 17x next year's estimate...with 50% growth estimated for next year, a 25 multiple for the company doesn't seem overly rich, especially given their balance sheet, and this would equate to a stock price of over 30 bucks they report their earnings after hours next thursday, so there is a little bit of risk buying ahead of that, but companies that have beat their number and offered an encouraging outlook have done well this earnings season, and i would expect that from CELL carl