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Strategies & Market Trends : Natural Resource Stocks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: isopatch who wrote (6917)1/29/2004 12:13:41 PM
From: Jim Willie CB  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 108925
 
I regard Fedevent as notice to TSY yield carry traders
these guys have enjoyed a MAJOR greeen light to speculators to profit (without work) on interest rate differentials
esp using futures leverage

what nobody is talking about is the additional threat to interest rate swappers
corporations cheated Mother Nature, swapping their lousy longterm rates for GE's shorterm rate (plus a vig)

in 1994, they unwound the speculative carry traders
long rates went from 3.5% to 8.0%
while I dont expect that, one must be prepared for unwinding a considerable amount of carry trade activity

AND CARRY TRADE IN 2002-2003 MUST BE AN ORDER OF MAGNITUDE GREATER THAN IN 1994-1995

/ jim