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To: sammaster who wrote (275541)	1/29/2004 9:22:22 AM
From: Tommaso	Respond to of 436258

Exactly. We are now set up for a replay of that last inflationary episode. Did anyone besides me watch Bill Gross on CNBC this morning? He is a very rare example of an honest man who really knows his area of finance (bonds) and offers good advice to anyone who will listen. A Barron's article a couple of weeks ago sais he was moving some of his own assets into his TIPS/Commodity fund, either PCRDX or one of the same series, I think it has to be. Gross didn't say anything about commodities this morning (while I was listening), but he certainly cautioned about the "carry bubble" (banks, etc. borrowing short and buying long) and the price risk of owning long bonds. But for safety he did suggest municipals. I like the way he tries to give advice that will preserve at least some capital, without hollering doomsday threats at his audience. The implications of what he quietly says are much worse than his manner of saying it.

To: sammaster who wrote (275541)	1/29/2004 9:41:32 AM
From: zonder	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

fear of uncontrolled inflation... or the fear that their currency will become worthless I agree with you that inflation expectations go hand in hand with devaluation expectations. Yes, that could be an incentive to buy gold for some of us. However, there are recent alternatives, like EUR. Besides, the fact that gold is quoted in USD is a disadvantage in its being a hedge against a possible devaluation of the USD, imho :-) the way the world is printing money to keep their currencies weak Only if you define "the world" to exclude the countries that have already started to increase interest rates, such as UK and New Zealand. it seems to be inflationary for now It looks rather inflationary for the US (not for the entire world), I agree. Just look at PPI numbers - 3.4% in August, 3.5% in September, 3.4% in October, 3.4% in November, and (ta-taa!) 4% in December 2003, which happened to be the highest comparable figure in the past thirteen years. Or, if you listen to Fedspeak, there is danger of deflation and Fed funds rate needs to be kept at 1% - at a level of negative real interest rates :-)