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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (6480)	1/29/2004 8:44:21 PM
From: yard_man	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

help me out here, mish -- I'm reviewing a table of treasury purchases for the last 6 quarters including the categories (sorry can't post) Household Non fincl corp state and local foreign commercial bank savings inst credit unions trusts life companies pvt pensions pub pensions MMF mutual funds closed end broker dealer . . . Obviously -- biggest purchases to date in foreign category But there is a big sized outlier for broker dealer from the 3q 03 -- 72B foreign purchases were still big in that quarter ... what do you think is going on there??

To: mishedlo who wrote (6480)	1/29/2004 9:01:50 PM
From: yard_man	Respond to of 110194

here's a thought -- if you were in the shoes of the Japanese CB feeling rather forced to buy tons of US government and corporate debt -- what would you do to protect yourself against a failure of that approach??

To: mishedlo who wrote (6480)	1/30/2004 11:30:28 AM
From: Real Man	Respond to of 110194

Yeah, but... The treasury still has to sell 500 billion in bonds this year. And, someone has to be buying. Someone who does not mind 1% yields, 20% yearly USD decline. Or, someone who does not mind relatively low yield in junk bonds with huge credit risk. We'll see. But I think you are right -junk will get hit first, and treasury yields may go lower at that point. So far, longer term interest rates are jammed in between the very long term downtrend and 200 DMA. I think the lows for the long-term rates may have been seen, but that's just a guess - officially, the bear in bonds has not started while the LT trend is intact, and it is.