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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: William H Huebl who wrote (68460)	1/30/2004 10:38:07 AM
From: Real Man	Respond to of 94695

Well, MACD has been falling sharply before, and we bounced back in force. I think bearish TA followers have been made broke by this market, so, got to be careful with it. Then again, one day it's not going to bounce. Some day.... I'm looking at bonds for a hint, cause while the $$$ is flowing, it's not gonna happen, probably. And the cash IS flowing - 18.5 Billion added Yesterday by the Fed to turn these markets... You can be sure they won't raise the rates... 321gold.com So, it's got to be the credit market, not the Fed, who restricts free money. It will happen at some point, I believe, but it has not happened yet. Once bonds finally decide to fall, they will do so very sharply. The summer of 2003 will seem like nothing compared to what may happen once the rates break out of the LT downtrend... Like I said - has not happened yet. But bonds sold off the 200 DMA after the Fed also. Didn't go much higher to resume the bullish trend. So here we are again, in indecision land, between 200 DMA in bonds and the LT downtrend in rates... waiting... for that proverbial BK. Every bank and hedge fund borrowing at 1%, and piling up into mortgages and long-date treasuries through derivatives to make that 30% per year, supposedly "risk-free" (as the government securities are). When long-term bonds start to fall, it's not going to be very pretty, since that's the other side of the derivative coin. If U make 30%, you can lose a whole bunch more if the trend reverses.