To: isopatch who wrote (7002 ) 1/30/2004 11:04:17 AM From: Jim Willie CB Respond to of 109091 clip from the "Broken Cycle" part#3 as to central banks Sean Corrigan offers an insightful view of a remarkable shift underway among central bankers, where the European CB now appears to be in the catbird seat, led by Jean-Claude Trichet, in its influence of currency markets. In his “Currency Wars” article, he points out how the ECB and the Bank of Japan have recently shown uncharacteristic defiance toward the Greenspasm Fed. They openly challenge US-held views on deficits and inflation. Otmar Issing, the astute respected ECB chief economist, cautioned G-7 finance ministers not to foster “an artificial bubble of demand through expansive financial and monetary policy, [because] from such a momentary flame, little can be expected but more inflation.” He went on to imply that the Fed has embarked on an unwise path, with ample failed precedent provided by Japan. In his words, “the wrong policy was pursued and the bubble only strengthened, the consequences of which… the Japanese economy suffers to this day.” Corrigan countered the Greenspasm claim that inflation, “the typical symptom of a weak currency, appears quiescent.” His typical condescending arrogant vocabulary does little to shout down actual contradictory evidence to his contention. The author cited some statistics worthy of note to counter. Over the last two years, unfinished import prices are up 20%. Finished import prices are up 6.7% annualized since the start of spring, nearly a 9-year high. Unfinished goods are often called components, the parts within products. Since the autumn, Asian currencies have gained ground against the USDollar. Import prices are now quietly slamming against the back door. It is inconceivable that imported consumer products, a staple among shoppers acting out their retail addiction, will avoid the effects of rising prices. Jeremy Grantham, legendary stock manager of Grantham, Mayo, Van Otterloo in Boston, made some crisp comments which relate to technology, the internet, and profits. His words seem to strike at the heart of most nonsensical wishful thinking directed at the remnants of the New Paradigm myth, wherein technology saves our economic bacon. "I am a huge fan of the Internet. But the thing that goes on in the Internet, above all, is price disclosure." Great as that may be for consumers, he says, it's not so good for business profits, and it gives them big obsolescence headaches. "Technology is often threatening to profit margins," he went on to declare. His listeners might add that jobs are the manifested export of our technological machinery. A clear signal has been sent across the Atlantic from the European Central Bank as we approach the February G-7 meeting in Florida. ECB council member Nout Wellink said an interest rate cut would do little to halt euro gains versus the US$. Wellink said “There is no need to take special measures” when finance ministers meet. He went on to say “The forces at work are much stronger and can’t be neutralized by a minor change in rates.” He implicitly refers to large structural problems with interest rates and currency exchange rates. Small interest rate maneuvers may do precious little to change the US$ bear trend. US federal and trade deficits are squarely on the table for discussion. Economics, politics, and war will enter the closed-door debate.