Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Natural Resource Stocks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: isopatch who wrote (7040)	1/30/2004 1:50:27 PM
From: Christopher Loe	Respond to of 108934

Off to visit my largest customer account, be back in about 4-5 hours to wrap up the week. Chris

To: isopatch who wrote (7040)	1/30/2004 5:54:05 PM
From: jimsioi	Respond to of 108934

ISO, yes shift in trading gears required Been away, occupied and not able to post recently. Have had the odd movement to check a post or two. Whether or not the FED speak meant anything different than it had a month ago, the markets do seem to have gone through something of a change. Energy Commods have changed direction and the related shares in some cases violently so...PMs just ratcheted down to a lower level with miners in many cases crumbling. They had been under performing toward the end of the year and into the new and there was no change in that trend at months end. I lost smack dab on 2% of capital in January after being somewhat more than that ahead at one time. It was my first losing month in 13....When things are a bit on the gray side I like to look at my portfolio's performance against benchmarks. For me those bench marks are a weighted blend based on my general portfolio allocation of the HUI, Gold and Silver, the XNG, CanRoy Index, Canadian dollar and the QQQ. HUI was off 12% +/- in January XNG after all the smoke cleared was off 3% CanRoys in USDs were off 4% but yielded 1% - so off 3% QQQs I use for general equity comparison were up 2% (Always hate it when I would have done better with only a position in the QQQs) Weighted basis for my portfolio was off 3.3% - so I did somewhat better than if I had left things completely unchanged all month.....roughly speaking. CASH position is up to 34% PM related is 24% (1/6th CEF) General Equity is 15% CanRoy is also at 15% E&P and OIS is at 12% Back to the point abut changing strategies, realizing the general equity market can take things down with it in a hurry, it certainly seems a higher cash position is called for. Natural Resources, generally, though not issue specific look, seem as likely to get buffeted around as anything else. I do tend to find that my cash position is about as good a teller of future market trends as anything....When it is low I'm full of good ideas, things are going my way, my list of securities long is as long as my arm...At such times the market seems to crest and my stocks with it...Up in the 35-40% cash area I've been stopped out or gotten out and growing complacent....then things turn.... Key things I am watch are, of course the course of the dollar and the effect of weather on energy storage levels hence prices. G7 meeting Feb 6-7 I'm betting has the opposite outcome for the dollar than the bearish one last time....In other words the dollar will maintain upward momentum here, at least stability and rise after the meeting. Something further will be cooked up to hit Gold and take it to $385 I can taste it, but then again maybe that’s my feeling because its come down from higher levels.. On the energy side it would seem to me we are cycling down to the bottom ends of ranges with $32 Crude and $5.50 NG..I'd expect the E&Ps to be among the better recovering groups for this week's fall next month if the weather is harsh.. USD - at the higher end of 85-88 trading range, closed below the 40 day simple moving average, Friday. 91 a clear target if 88 is taken out to the upside. Fundamentally longer term I feel I still want some PM exposure. Twenty-four percent is a little high given the overall technical picture. Can’t trust the CB to protect my purchasing power. stockcharts.com[h,a]dacayiay[dc][pb40!c200!i!f][vc60][iUl14!Up14,3,3!Lya7,14,28!Le12,26,9!Lb14!Lm12!Ld20]&pref=G Some of my favs: stockcharts.com\|B\|B14 We see the HUI had an inside day...lots of overhead at 230 The OSXers have outperformed the XNGers recently, as it was suggested by one bright trader they would in this stretch. IVN has not broken down to new lows in the swooning period as scoping study is due soon and basis that how much potential there is in these shares from here will be more intelligently guessed....I look to sell rallies on the news. Western Silver is holding up about as good as the best in the miner patch....Reserve estimates increases expected. TGA $2.75 over head and $2.15 support...this one looks to be broken for a while. ( I did get a partial fill yesterday at the high of the day so I'd expect we'll see something higher, perhaps a thrust to $2.70-75) EENC - have my eye on that growing CanRoy...boy that was a beautiful place to have picked up shares at $11, yesterday...Watching for an entry point. APA -pretty well tells the story of investors fleeing E&Ps ....looks like a sale on a 50% or 61.8% retrace... OMNI - holding on ZMH - currently my best performing stock....added some Friday when it was lower....Need to find more good ideas like this outside NR… So that's about it...making up for lost posting....hope this all was interesting and of some minor benefit to somebody but me.... jims101