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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: russwinter who wrote (6648)	1/31/2004 10:10:39 PM
From: yard_man	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 110194

is FF too low now?? boy, it is almost a nonsensical question -- it's like an unwed mother facing some difficultly in coming with the funds to see her son through his second year in college wondering if she should have used birth control ... <g> The damage has already been done by rates being excessively low for years on end -- you could probably trace it back to the savings and loan crisis for starters ... but a lot of others might go back to Nixon closing the gold window ... still others would go back to FDR or even further A rise in rates now would be cathartic to be sure and might get some of the nastiness started a little sooner -- but the damage has been done. Colllapse in prices supported by debt IS the hurricane -- rising input and commodity costs now, protectionist talk, wanton fiscal stimulus -- these are the pickup in the winds and choppy surf that you see BEFORE the hurricane.

To: russwinter who wrote (6648)	1/31/2004 10:44:38 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 110194

There is nothing going on now that justifies one percent FFs. That is beyond the pale under any historical standard. A slowing economy and deflation could. Wouln't you have said the same thing about Japan for the last 5 years or whatever it has been. There is no reason why we cant stay down here for 5 years. Seriously. I can cite many reasons (as can you) why we should not be here at all, In fact I do not think we should even be close to this, but that is neither here nor there IMO. The question remains, what can be done about it that is not as reckless as letting them stay down here? IMO - NOTHING. I will go on to say that it is easier to do nothing than something, especiall since anything you do is likely to be wrong. There is NO way out of this mess period. You know it and I know it. I believe they will take the long way out and you think we should get it over with now. IMO, your way is just as bad as theirs but has the advantage of forcing reality sooner. Who wants to do that? M