Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Moderated Thread - please read rules before posting -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jim Mullens who wrote (39049)	2/1/2004 3:46:05 PM
From: pyslent	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 197030

I had a re-hash of this on the G&K Mod thread a few weeks ago and cited a Brian Modoff report that came to a much, much higher figure for AWE’s WCDMA deployment. Whatever the actual figure is for AWE's wCDMA deployment, my guess is that it would cost the same for AWE to switch over their new GSM network to GSM1X, give or take a bit for "economies of scale" (thanks Tom). Remember, AT&T GSM is in the PCS spectrum, and I believe they intend on putting in wCDMA in the same 1900 MHz, and I'm sure their cell density was designed with that in mind. At $183B for approximately 355M Western Europe subs, that works out to about $515 per subscriber, or about a magnitude of 5 to 10 times higher that what you are suggesting. While this is a lot more than AT&T's projections, it probably includes the cost of upgrading outdated GSM-MAP CN and the additional cell sites needed to move from 800 MHz to 1900. At&T won't have those expenses. At your figures, It would have been/ would be a SLAM DUNK for AWE move ahead with WCDMA. Instead, AWE had put the business on the block. I don't agree with your logic here that AWE's sale indicates that wCDMA is more expensive than they let on. Another possibility is that even at the quoted price, AWE does not feel that it's future business prospects are good as an independent carrier. AT&T has spent a lot of their consumer marketing dollars trying to generate interest in mMode and data (text messaging promos for american idol, print magazines on mMode for ALL subscribers, etc). Overall, they are seeing disappointing ROI on their gamble on data uptake. My guess is that they've concluded that the problem is in market demand for wireless data and that wCDMA (regardless of the cost) will not rescue them, hence the sale. Perhaps the lack of consumer interest in their data services is in the technology or in the pricing, but it's not the marketing.