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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (6652)	2/1/2004 9:26:56 AM
From: russwinter	Respond to of 110194

<Someone tell me why this is not true today, still.> Well, I have certainly presented my case ad nuesuem as to why, and there will be a test <g>. This is a good description of the modern day Keynesian economics as practiced by the BOJ and Greenspan. It's worth reading just to get a grasp of how these guys think. But once again, note the date, July, 2002. ALOT has happened since then, especially in what I would call the overshoot period since late spring-early summer of 2003. In fact, it's been unprecedented. Now we are going to have to deal with the inflationary and bottleneck effects of all this McCulley like philosophy. We will see if the guy even has a job at the end of 04 (the year of the monkey). On another matter, both you and tippet have written about weak demand and slack economic activity. Mostly you've theorized about it though, and I'm more interested in real evidence that this is happening in the current environment. I'm open minded on this too, as honestly I don't see the "recovery" as sustainable either. But mostly I'm still seeing a strong pattern of train wreck overheating. So really I'm not interested in just arguing in a vacuum with you guys on this, but wish to direct the discourse to real indicators, examples, evidence. And I'm going to take year old economic data (or even 2Q, 2003 outgap numbers) with a grain of salt now, I'm much more interested in current conditions. There's a list on the header that I've provided so far, and I'm very open to other eyes and input on this. Most of the indicators I track have been mentioned in prior posts. Here's one that's kind of revealing, Las Vegas airport and hotel traffic through 3Q. I'll post 4Q when it comes out. It seems to show the same thing so far as retail sales: a consumer who is stretching his personal income, perhaps with more borrowing, but maybe a bit tired, and sputtering some? travelnevada.com BTW on this front, I will give you the wage and salaries withholding numbers Monday for both Dec and Jan, so that you can use it for your interest rate trading position going into next week's employment release.