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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: philv who wrote (6671)	2/1/2004 1:15:28 PM
From: russwinter	Respond to of 110194

There are clearly real and very serious shortages, also amplified by some bubble like speculation. The challenge will be to identify when the bust takes hold. I would say you would indicators like the Baltic freight index dropping first, and the Chinese stock market (already happening). You will likely see train wreck blowoffs and finally busts in pricing of things like copper, oil, steel, food stuffs. I'm open to tracking ideas and suggestions? So far though it's just been steady unrelenting upward pressure on prices. We are nearing the parabolic crack up boom phase now IMO. Notice how commodities had all of about a day and half correction on the Fed "talk"? How anybody can still be talking about deflation and disinflation now and dismissing all this as irrelevant, is simply unbelievable. It's interesting that the Chinese are forced to end run western companies to try and scramble to get the input goods: quote.bloomberg.com