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Politics : Politics for Pros- moderated -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: DMaA who wrote (27417)	2/1/2004 7:57:52 PM
From: LindyBill	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 793897

I have read accounts of the New's anchors stomping the Dem candidates on the AWOL issue. Which means "no legs." Good rundown from the Offical Republican Pollster. Thursday, January 29, 2004 Political Perspective Post New Hampshire By Matthew Dowd Anyone watching the media coverage and analysis of the New Hampshire primary could draw several incorrect conclusions about primary voters in New Hampshire and elsewhere. The notion that “so many” Republicans voted in the Democratic primary this year, that their “enthusiasm” on primary day showed how angry they are at President Bush and that this will “spell trouble” in November is flat wrong. The facts from Tuesday’s exit polls provide some objectivity: a higher percentage of Democrats voted in the Republican primary in 2000 (4%), than Republicans voted in the Democratic primary this year (3%). And in 2000, there was a seriously contested Democratic primary between Gore and Bradley to keep Democrats interested. More voters cast ballots in the relatively uncontested Republican primary this year than cast ballots in the uncontested Republican primary in 1984 when Reagan ran for re-election. President Bush received a higher percentage of the vote this time (88%) than Reagan won in 1984 (86%). In fact, Bush received a higher percentage than Clinton received in his uncontested Democratic primary in 1996 (84%). While the majority of Democratic voters on Election Day in New Hampshire held unfavorable views of President Bush, they did not consider themselves angry. Despite the Democratic candidates’ best efforts; only 49% of the voters described themselves as angry, while a majority said they were not angry. When you compare where public opinion polls had John Kerry last April with where he was on election night, the numbers are nearly identical. Kerry was polling at 35% or 36% last April. Then the Dean “outsider” candidacy emerged, floundered, and recovered a bit, but Kerry ended up exactly where he started. There was no expansion in enthusiasm. The Democrats merely returned to the safe, old, standby. Kerry fills the role of a traditional Democratic choice after the thrill of the Dean candidacy wore off. Finally, per my memos from last April and November, expect us to be behind at some point in the coming weeks because of the closely divided nature of the country. This is something we have long expected, and when the nominee is nearly secure for the Democrats, they will (as Kerry has already) get a tremendous amount of positive press coverage nationally. Find this item at: georgewbush.com for by BUSH-CHENEY '04, Inc.