Kerry Strong In All 7 Races On Tuesday
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By Dan Balz, Washington Post Staff Writer
COLUMBIA, S.C., Jan. 31 -- Riding the momentum from his recent victories in Iowa and New Hampshire, Sen. John F. Kerry (D-Mass.) is leading or competitive in all seven states with primaries or caucuses on Tuesday, and his opponents have adopted a divide-to-survive strategy to deny him a sweep.
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Tuesday's contests stretch from the South across the Midwest and Great Plains to the Rocky Mountains, and interviews with politicians in those regions, plus the latest polls, underscore the degree to which Kerry is poised to take a big step in his march toward the Democratic presidential nomination.
Kerry spent little time or money in most of the seven states before his win in New Hampshire last Tuesday, but his early victories have transformed the races everywhere. New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson (D), who has been traveling across his state to attend rallies with many of the candidates, said Saturday that Kerry's momentum would be hard to overcome. "It's an incredible surge," he said.
Kerry is the only candidate competing actively in all states, with his rivals cherry-picking among the seven in hopes of slowing Kerry's candidacy, forcing the nomination battle into the next several rounds of contests and keeping their hopes alive. "What every campaign is looking for is to stretch out the calendar," said Matt Bennett, communications director for retired Army Gen. Wesley K. Clark.
Kerry's toughest race Tuesday appears to be here in South Carolina, the first southern state to vote in the primaries. Sen. John Edwards (news - web sites) (N.C.) has called it a must-win for his candidacy, and two weekend polls give Edwards a double-digit lead over Kerry. A third shows the race much closer.
In Oklahoma, the site of another major battle, Clark is counting on his military experience and Arkansas roots to propel him to victory. He holds a fragile lead over a rising Kerry, who will make his first appearance in the state this weekend. There is also a vigorous fight in Arizona, with Kerry leading Clark there. In all the states, many Democrats are still undecided.
Tuesday provides a critical test for all the Democrats, as they compete for the first time in the nomination battle for the votes of African Americans and Latinos, and in states with more moderate electorates than they encountered in either Iowa or New Hampshire.
The Massachusetts senator has embarked on a six-day, seven-state campaign swing and has invested heavily in television ads in all the states, hoping to win the majority of the contests and the bulk of the 269 delegates at stake.
His major rivals, meanwhile, will face increased pressure from party officials and even some of their most prominent supporters to reexamine their candidacies if they fail to win anywhere Tuesday.
"We'll have had all regions of the country voting, and after that candidates will have to make their assessment," said Democratic National Committee (news - web sites) Chairman Terence R. McAuliffe. "Can they continue to raise money? Can they continue to get their message out? That's an assessment candidates are going to have to make based on what the voters have said."
Former Vermont governor Howard Dean (news - web sites), who was knocked off his front-runner's perch by Kerry after finishing third in Iowa and second in New Hampshire, faces a bleak Tuesday.
Dean is not advertising in any of the seven states, and his advisers have said he hopes to amass his share of delegates on the cheap. But in many states this weekend, Dean was in danger of not meeting the 15 percent threshold needed to qualify for delegates.
Dean has already begun preparing for losses in all seven states on Tuesday by telling supporters he will keep going regardless of what happens. Roy Neel, Dean's new chief executive officer, laid out the campaign's new strategy in an e-mail message to supporters Friday night, saying Dean will concentrate on Michigan and Washington on Feb. 7, Maine on Feb. 8 and make Wisconsin's Feb. 17 primary a critical battleground.
But even some of his most important supporters question that strategy. Andrew Stern, president of the Service Employees International Union, the first major union to give Dean an endorsement, said Dean needs a strategy for winning the nomination and that the results Tuesday will have a major impact on his chances.
Stern said his union is committed to helping Dean in Michigan, Washington and Maine, but warned: "I've said it's really hard if you don't win a state on Feb. 3 to continue. I said that before Iowa and New Hampshire, and it would be disingenuous now to change my mind."
Sen. Joseph I. Lieberman (Conn.), who finished fifth in New Hampshire, also faces a gloomy Tuesday, with Delaware his only strong state.
All of Kerry's rivals know they need help from one another Tuesday. Collectively, they hope they can keep the front-runner's victories to a minimum and his delegate lead modest -- all with the goal of keeping the race open through the next several rounds of contests.
Tuesday offers the biggest cache of pledged delegates so far, but after Tuesday just 10 percent of the pledged delegates to summer's Democratic National Convention will have been chosen. Here is a state-by-state look at the upcoming contests:
South Carolina. The Palmetto State is a battle between Edwards and Kerry. Edwards, who finished second in Iowa and fourth in New Hampshire, is counting on a win here to help him emerge as Kerry's principal rival.
Kerry staged his formal announcement in the state in September, then abandoned it until winning Iowa and New Hampshire. But those victories, coupled with endorsements from Sen. Ernest F. Hollings (D) and Rep. James E. Clyburn (D), the state's most influential African American politician and a former supporter of Rep. Richard A. Gephardt (news - web sites) (Mo.), have revived his candidacy here.
Edwards will campaign here the final two days, while Kerry will be elsewhere, but the Massachusetts senator is matching Edwards almost dollar-for-dollar on television. "I think he wants to try and stop us now rather than stop us later," said David Axelrod, Edwards's media adviser.
Clark spent about $2 million in the state before New Hampshire, according to a Kerry adviser, but is not a significant factor now, although Al Sharpton (news - web sites) could be. African Americans are expected to make up more than 40 percent of the vote here Tuesday, and Sharpton has worked the black community hard for support.
Missouri. None of the candidates paid much attention to Missouri as long as Gephardt was in the race, but with 74 delegates at stake -- more than any other state on Tuesday -- and Gephardt out, it has suddenly become a big prize.
Since Gephardt's withdrawal, the state has swung decidedly toward Kerry, with recent polls giving him a commanding lead. Kerry has picked up key newspaper endorsements as well as the support of prominent party and elected officials who had been with Gephardt. "It feels like we've got great momentum," said Roy Temple, who is running the Kerry campaign there.
Edwards has worked the state's rural areas to good effect. Joe Carmichael, a former state Democratic Party chairman and an Edwards supporter, said the North Carolinian drew about 1,000 people at a rally in Springfield on Wednesday night. "It was the most energized event I have ever been at," he said.
Oklahoma. Clark advisers say Oklahoma appears to be the best prospect for a Clark victory. The retired general held a narrow lead in one poll and was in a dead heat with Kerry in another.
Although he has spent no time in the state until this weekend, Kerry could eke out a victory by consolidating the progressive vote, about a quarter of the electorate, and then hope that Clark, Edwards and Lieberman will divide the moderates and conservatives.
"Most Oklahomans feel pretty comfortable with General Clark and Senator Edwards," said state Democratic Chairman Jay Parmley. "They're from our neck of the woods. Howard Dean has great organization and staff but has not been on television. It would be my guess that the more progressives and liberals are moving toward Kerry."
Arizona. The second-biggest delegate prize Tuesday, Arizona has become a major battle, with Kerry leading Clark in several polls and many voters undecided.
Arizona Gov. Janet Napolitano (D), who is neutral, said Kerry has gotten a significant benefit from Iowa and New Hampshire. "There is definitely a Kerry bounce here; you can feel it," she said.
State party Chairman Jim Pederson said Clark "has been a hit" in the state because of his military background, and has run an aggressive campaign. Dean concentrated on the state's vote-by-mail program, which allowed Arizonans to start voting the day of the Iowa caucuses. Lieberman has the Arizona Republic's endorsement.
Party leaders said no candidate has cornered the state's Hispanic vote, which could account for about a quarter of the turnout on Tuesday.
New Mexico. Richardson said the electability issue is helping Kerry among New Mexico Democrats, and while praising the other candidates, he said that Clark, Dean and Edwards have their work cut out for them. "It's going to be very hard to overcome Senator Kerry's momentum," he said.
New Mexico's caucuses may draw no more than 50,000 voters because of the limited number of polling places and the short hours they will be open. Democratic strategists say Dean may already have banked 8,000 or more absentee votes in his column through an aggressive organizing effort that began before his slide in Iowa.
Delaware. Lieberman has invested more time and energy in Delaware than any other candidate, and the state appears to be his best chance to make a strong showing.
But Sen. Joseph R. Biden Jr. (D), the state's senior senator, said: "My guess is that Kerry wins because this is sort of a national primary, and when [voters] talk to me about the race, the thing they want most is to beat Bush. . . . The guy best positioned to do that is Kerry."
Sen. Thomas R. Carper (D), who supports Lieberman, agreed that Kerry is on the rise and said that, to win, Lieberman will need "a good turnout and a good get-out-the-vote effort on our part on Tuesday."
North Dakota. The only recent poll in North Dakota, by the Fargo Forum and WDAY-TV, put Kerry in the lead, with Clark second and almost 40 percent undecided. Kerry plans to campaign in the state on Sunday. |
