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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (6748)	2/2/2004 3:11:55 PM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 110194

As usual you completely missed (and distort) the nature of my question. In fact this goes on so much with you (although the lone wool price post was interesting) that I'm going to beg off on further exchanges. If someone else wishes to take the mantle who can successfully (as I can't) communicate this to you, I will observe, and chime in background stuff, but not directly. So a final and only point. I will not repeat this another fifty times like I have already. In effect you are saying the only prices that matter are finished goods as sold at WMT? I completely disagree, there is an enormous dollar based inflation raging right now, and it will completely destabilize the entire planet, irrespective of the pricing power situation at WMT. Much of the inflation is occurring in subsistence items like energy, food, and metals. So, I don't think WMT prices matter that much in this environment. The fact that consumers hold out for a price rollback on Ponds beauty cream or Chinese made stainless steel toenail clippers is not the central issue now. Prices nearly everywhere else and the numerous shortages are the inflationary train wreck issue.

To: mishedlo who wrote (6748)	2/2/2004 4:10:21 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

MishMan, you are employing too much aggregate thinking you make a lot of sense but home heating expenses are rising, a sign of inflation copper pipes for home plumbing are rising soybean prices for farmers are rising to feed livestock we have enormous selective price increases try to get away from the aggregate thinking sure, plenty of colossal oversupply pressures, which will continue to exert heavy forces to reduce prices in many areas you subscribe (it seems to me) to the longterm oversupply deflationary picture fine, so do I Russ subscribes (it seems to me) to the nearterm monetary and credit inflationary picture fine, so do I the USGovt is not gonna stand by idly and allow a supercycle deflationary collapse they will pump up the volume on every monetary stereo system that is with earshot of spenders and investors that has worked in the past and they are too fuching stupid to detect a paradigm shift that tells them this time their approach will fail OR ELSE, THEY ARE TOO SCARED TO ADMIT THE SHIFT, AND REALIZE IT WILL FAIL, BUT THEY HAVE NO ALTERNATIVES WITHIN GRASP I believe the USGovt and Fed will continue until price inflation shows up they must they see no alternative they will engineer a nearterm price inflationary episode it will solve nothing it will wreak huge damage then the macro deflationary forces will take over I predict price inflation will be quite evident by late 2004 and all thru 2005 but the supercycle will snuff that new trend out by 2007 and 2008 we will see the bond bear starting sometime in 2004 it will go away and end in 2007 or so then we will again see a massive bond rally again but that will take the USEconomy squarely into the unremitting jaws of the dreaded Liquidity Trap just like Japan and our bank system, tied too closely to Fanny Mae, will suffer horrible damage just like Japan just my thoughts you guys are both right I have had a similar battle with you on rates, MishMan I give in to you on longterm I stand my ground on nearterm with such powerful inflationary forces at work since early 2001, officials will eventually succeed they have to, since they are trying so hard if they sense their efforts are not working, they will up the pressures even more official efforts will come up against more powerful supercycle forces and the USEconomy will ultimately collapse into the Liquidity Trap / jim