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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Neocon who wrote (124230)	2/2/2004 6:40:42 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

<Sistani.....generally supports the Americans.> I will predict in advance that this turns out to be more wishful thinking on your part, akin to the 97 breathless reports posted here over the last year, that WMD had really been found. I will predict that Sistani turns out to be an ardent nationalist. Occupation by a foreign army is incompatible with national sovereignty, so Sistani will insist (and will insist long before the Bush Administration is ready) that American soldiers leave. I will predict that Sistani will rule Iraq, and will have friendlier relations with Iran than with the U.S. He shares a religion, culture, and language with them. We are Other, to him. We are already retreating from the capital, and will probably steadily retreat from all the heavily populated areas. Then, our "occupation" and our "authority" will consist of holding a few besieged camps in the desert. This will be a prelude to complete withdrawal. Further, I will predict that an Iraq run by Sistani will have the same incentives as Saddam Hussain had, to acquire nuclear and biological weapons. More, actually, since Iran and Saudi Arabia are going to have nukes in the next 2-4 years. So, it is likely that, once our soldiers are gone, Iraq will acquire WMD. And we will adjust to this reality.