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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: russwinter who wrote (6789)	2/2/2004 11:01:37 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

Rome will burn, but the Fed will not be clear in noticing they have long relied on wrong statistics and distorted most every statistic anyway they enjoy (nay, celebrate) the distortions my "Ass-Backward Economics" series attempted to point out backward thought process which is leading us over the cliff or as you like to say, toward a train wreck no, Russ, I dont think the Fed will do the right thing they will talk at higher rates, not impose them we need higher rates, but doing so would kill housing, bonds, and hurt corp balance sheets via widespread swaps I think the Fed will panic later this year or early next they will respond to a plummeting USDollar they will raise ST rates by 50-100 bpts but it will not mean shit, I mean SHIT the train has already derailed off the REAL ECONOMY track it is already careening toward the chasm casino our Fed used to be a student of history and economics nowadays, he is nothing but a bank politician and market enabler he made his choice in Jan2001 -- encourage yield speculation, build a new housing bubble, and take one giant step toward the Liquidity Trap his talk of higher rates is just that -- TALK I dont think the Fed will raise until it is way way too late they have learned in the last few years that Fed Open Mouth Committee actions cost less and sometimes bring about a kick to the coiled system it wont mean shit, I mean SHIT / jim

To: russwinter who wrote (6789)	2/3/2004 4:09:45 PM
From: BEEF JERKEY	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

Every CB in the world holds an excess of US $$$$$ (eg. Canada has NO gold left - just US paper) China and Japan alone hold over 1 trillion in US $$$$$$. What happens to the market value of something there is too much of? If there was a way out its too late now. Greenspan's pumping has only exacerbated the situation. The only question is how much longer can the rest of the world support the dollar? When the panic starts and the rush is into oil, gold and wheat Asia especially is going to find out they have been handed nothing but bags full of paper. I think this is what they fear and is the reason they continue to support the US $$$. But how long can that last?