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To: Les H who wrote (9835)2/3/2004 12:09:35 AM
From: Les H  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 29594
 
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Selected tech groups

Semiconductors (129 stocks)

_ percent stocks over MA Trend Price Phase
_ market SOX 10 d 21 d 50 d 200d Score Phase Change
_----------------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----- ----- ------
_Feb 2 506 12 27 58 90 -99 0.59
_Jan 30 514 12 29 62 91 -93 1.13
_Jan 29 511 11 29 61 91 -65 1.54
_Jan 28 515 17 41 69 92 -37 2.15
_Jan 27 517 26 59 74 94 37 2.78
_Jan 26 540 45 78 85 96 57 3.49
_Jan 23 527 33 71 82 95 82 3.64
_Jan 22 533 43 84 88 97 99 4.21
_Jan 21 541 70 93 92 98 99 4.69 DOWN
_Jan 20 555 90 98 98 98 96 5.01

Networking (96 stocks)

_ percent stocks over MA Trend Price Phase
_ market NWX 10 d 21 d 50 d 200d Score Phase Change
_----------------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----- ----- ------
_Feb 2 304 23 54 80 92 52 8.27
_Jan 30 304 27 61 81 92 65 8.87
_Jan 29 299 12 54 78 92 80 9.57
_Jan 28 307 20 74 88 93 91 10.65
_Jan 27 316 49 90 94 94 93 11.40 DOWN
_Jan 26 322 71 94 94 94 94 11.75 UP
_Jan 23 309 60 92 95 94 96 11.70
_Jan 22 311 60 97 97 94 99 12.22 DOWN
_Jan 21 321 85 99 97 95 100 12.63
_Jan 20 332 96 99 99 95 97 12.38

Biotechnology (110 stocks)

_ percent stocks over MA Trend Price Phase
_ market BTK 10 d 21 d 50 d 200d Score Phase Change
_----------------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----- ----- ------
_Feb 2 524 42 62 79 80 65 3.92 UP
_Jan 30 515 25 61 79 80 70 3.90 DOWN
_Jan 29 524 36 65 83 81 82 4.12 UP
_Jan 28 511 43 69 85 79 95 4.07
_Jan 27 516 73 83 85 84 97 4.37 DOWN
_Jan 26 527 89 85 86 85 98 4.55
_Jan 23 523 80 85 86 84 99 4.37
_Jan 22 521 71 84 84 83 100 4.23
_Jan 21 527 83 85 84 84 100 4.04
_Jan 20 516 78 83 81 82 100 3.54

Software (124 stocks)

_ percent stocks over MA Trend Price Phase
_ market GSO 10 d 21 d 50 d 200d Score Phase Change
_----------------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----- ----- ------
_Feb 2 155 35 45 67 84 -100 1.91
_Jan 30 156 38 51 70 85 -100 2.37
_Jan 29 157 29 45 70 85 -67 2.83
_Jan 28 158 32 50 74 86 36 3.36
_Jan 27 160 45 65 78 85 52 3.88
_Jan 26 163 63 72 82 89 52 4.21
_Jan 23 163 53 71 81 87 68 4.29
_Jan 22 161 50 72 83 87 84 4.42 DOWN
_Jan 21 164 64 81 84 88 91 4.67
_Jan 20 165 73 86 86 90 81 4.64

Internet (119 stocks)

_ percent stocks over MA Trend Price Phase
_ market INX 10 d 21 d 50 d 200d Score Phase Change
_----------------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----- ----- ------
_Feb 2 184 29 36 68 86 -93 5.13
_Jan 30 186 22 43 71 84 -88 5.56
_Jan 29 185 16 36 72 82 -60 5.86
_Jan 28 186 24 57 83 86 58 6.24
_Jan 27 187 50 71 86 87 89 6.62 DOWN
_Jan 26 191 66 82 90 90 95 6.92 UP
_Jan 23 188 54 80 87 90 95 6.82 DOWN
_Jan 22 189 51 82 87 89 98 6.91
_Jan 21 190 69 84 89 91 99 6.88
_Jan 20 191 78 88 89 92 99 6.62

link to January data
Message 19753817
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To: Les H who wrote (9835)2/3/2004 10:50:31 AM
From: Les H  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 29594
 
02/02/04: Sir John Templeton's Outlook On Business & The Stock Market

LINDA O`BRYON: Well, when it comes to the legends of the financial world, Sir John Templeton is on that list. He`s the creator of some of the world`s largest and most successful international investment funds. Now he runs the John Templeton Foundation, which examines the boundaries between theology and science. Recently, Paul Kangas sat down with Sir John at his home in the Bahamas to talk about business and the stock market today.

PAUL KANGAS, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT ANCHOR: Sir John, among your many memorable observations about common sense investing is this one, and I quote. "Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria." Where in this sequence do you believe the U.S. stock market is now?

SIR JOHN TEMPLETON: In dangerous ground, Paul. Let me put that in slightly different words. Usually god favors the people who try to do good. So when you find that the crowd is desperately trying to sell, help them and buy. When you find that the crowd is over enthusiastically trying to buy, help them and sell. It usually works out.

KANGAS: It certainly has for you over the years, that`s for sure. So you don`t think the U.S. stock market is particularly attractive right now. Are there foreign markets where you do see value?

TEMPLETON: Not really. This is a period to play safe. Usually there are great differences between markets in different nations and you can find remarkable opportunities somewhere. But more than any time in my 91 years, I find more uniformity and less opportunity by going into different nations or different industries.

KANGAS: What is an investor to do if he`s not to be investing anywhere in the world right now? What should he do?

TEMPLETON: Play safe. But you can`t play safe by doing nothing. If you take your money out of high priced stocks, you have to put it somewhere. So probably put it into U.S. treasury bonds. But even better than that, maybe a new thing that didn`t exist until a few years ago called market neutral funds. These are not usually SEC registered, but there are a dozen or more now where the managers try hard to be always equally long and short. So it doesn`t matter whether the stocks go up or down, you make profit depending on how wise the manager is.

KANGAS: How about China? What are your thoughts on this emerging power?

TEMPLETON: Wonderful. Honest. Delighted to have people more prosperous. My guess is that within as short a period as 20 years China, which has been poor for all centuries, will become the dominant -- well, not the dominant, but the largest gross national product that any nation ever had. So it`s something we should all rejoice about, one of the great blessings we don`t fully appreciate.

KANGAS: Gold stock stocks have been surging. Does this indicate trouble down the line? And wouldn`t they make good investments or do you think that that bull market is over for gold?

TEMPLETON: No one ever knows when the market is over. But the great boom in gold is more than half over. Let`s put it more broadly, Paul. All currencies, not only the American dollar but all currencies always go down, mainly because of democracy. The voters will vote for a person who is going to spend too much. And so you have to expect all currencies to go down. And just recently, America has started to spend too much and the currency has already gone down a lot. But other nations now realize that and they don`t want to lose out to America. So they make their money go down, too.

KANGAS: The Bush administration has shown little concern over the significant weakness in the U.S. dollar rates recently, especially against the Euro. Do you think that they`re doing right by not being concerned?

TEMPLETON: Yes, I do.

KANGAS: But there comes a point, does there not, Sir John, when it becomes a danger?

TEMPLETON: Well, not to America, no. It becomes a danger in the sense that other nations will have to compete. Other nations will have to reduce the value of their money, too. But I don`t think it`s anywhere near being a danger to America. I don`t see how it would cause enough danger to America.

KANGAS: So it is a time for the investor to go for safety?

TEMPLETON: Yes, well, your time horizon there, if we`re talking the next two, three, four years, I would certainly advise your audience to play it safe, as we just spoke about.

KANGAS: Sir John Templeton, thank you so much for your time. We really appreciate it at NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT.

TEMPLETON: Thank you, Paul.



To: Les H who wrote (9835)2/3/2004 9:24:21 PM
From: Les H  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 29594
 
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Market/Sector Breadth Journal: Feb 3, 2004 (3178 stocks)

Overall Database

_ percent stocks over MA highs/lows highs/lows highs/lows highs/lows
_ market 10 d 21 d 50 d 200d 5-days 10-days 20-days 65-days
------------------ ---- ---- ---- ---- ---------- ---------- ---------- --------
_Feb 3 35 47 69 88 490 - 834 320 - 682 274 - 430 238 -106
_Feb 2 35 50 70 88 471 - 833 373 - 650 326 - 375 281 - 93
_Jan 30 32 50 71 89 356 - 968 284 - 680 242 - 363 198 - 61
_Jan 29 31 50 72 89 270 -1410 224 - 936 196 - 460 167 - 78
_Jan 28 35 55 75 90 265 -1604 220 - 898 184 - 452 153 - 76
_Jan 27 59 70 82 91 584 - 767 490 - 409 421 - 202 348 - 30
_Jan 26 71 77 85 92 1103 - 318 968 - 182 824 - 101 670 - 17
_Jan 23 65 75 84 92 841 - 518 694 - 306 581 - 155 462 - 29
_Jan 22 63 74 83 92 740 - 638 597 - 324 498 - 155 397 - 34
_Jan 21 73 78 85 92 1137 - 336 920 - 206 818 - 109 652 - 28
_Jan 20 71 77 84 92 1350 - 378 1112 - 227 1030 - 129 804 - 27

Market Index Breadth

S & P 500
_ percent stocks over MA highs/lows highs/lows highs/lows highs/lows
_ market 10 d 21 d 50 d 200d 5-days 10-days 20-days 65-days
_----------------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---------- ---------- ---------- --------
_Feb 3 1136 44 51 72 92 102 - 117 66 - 96 53 - 66 48 - 9
_Feb 2 1135 42 52 72 92 102 - 104 83 - 86 67 - 49 62 - 7
_Jan 30 1131 36 49 74 91 81 - 131 64 - 84 49 - 46 43 - 6
_Jan 29 1134 38 52 75 92 77 - 167 64 - 115 56 - 70 51 - 11
_Jan 28 1128 31 50 74 92 39 - 280 36 - 154 30 - 93 26 - 9
_Jan 27 1144 55 66 80 94 74 - 131 63 - 77 54 - 45 50 - 4
_Jan 26 1155 69 74 84 95 186 - 50 166 - 28 134 - 21 123 - 2
_Jan 23 1141 62 69 82 94 103 - 124 89 - 78 64 - 45 54 - 3
_Jan 22 1144 68 73 84 94 133 - 89 114 - 55 91 - 26 83 - 3
_Jan 21 1147 77 77 85 94 234 - 42 182 - 26 167 - 15 143 - 5
_Jan 20 1139 67 71 83 93 175 - 79 134 - 47 121 - 26 106 - 4

Nasdaq 100

_ percent stocks over MA highs/lows highs/lows highs/lows highs/lows
_ market 10 d 21 d 50 d 200d 5-days 10-days 20-days 65-days
_----------------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---------- ---------- ---------- --------
_Feb 3 1492 31 39 55 86 17 - 23 10 - 17 5 - 14 5 - 3
_Feb 2 1488 28 40 55 89 12 - 35 7 - 26 4 - 18 4 - 7
_Jan 30 1493 29 41 60 87 13 - 25 8 - 21 5 - 12 3 - 3
_Jan 29 1496 28 41 60 88 9 - 31 6 - 27 4 - 17 2 - 5
_Jan 28 1491 22 37 57 87 3 - 65 2 - 50 1 - 25 1 - 6
_Jan 27 1519 39 52 69 90 8 - 39 6 - 27 6 - 14 4 - 2
_Jan 26 1554 59 71 81 92 33 - 15 26 - 7 21 - 5 15 - 1
_Jan 23 1531 45 63 75 92 22 - 31 16 - 21 13 - 8 8 - 1
_Jan 22 1530 47 69 79 91 15 - 29 13 - 17 12 - 2 8 - 2
_Jan 21 1546 62 76 80 92 29 - 16 21 - 7 20 - 1 14 - 1
_Jan 20 1553 71 80 83 92 36 - 13 29 - 6 27 - 3 19 - 0

S & P 100

_ percent stocks over MA highs/lows highs/lows highs/lows highs/lows
_ market 10 d 21 d 50 d 200d 5-days 10-days 20-days 65-days
_----------------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---------- ---------- ---------- --------
_Feb 3 563 44 50 73 91 22 - 21 16 - 18 13 - 13 11 - 1
_Feb 2 563 42 47 74 91 21 - 23 18 - 20 16 - 13 13 - 1
_Jan 30 560 37 44 78 91 13 - 31 11 - 20 8 - 12 7 - 1
_Jan 29 563 43 54 79 91 16 - 31 11 - 25 9 - 16 8 - 1
_Jan 28 559 28 46 72 90 6 - 56 6 - 33 5 - 20 4 - 1
_Jan 27 567 56 67 82 93 8 - 22 7 - 11 5 - 7 5 - 1
_Jan 26 573 73 76 86 94 43 - 7 40 - 4 32 - 3 28 - 1
_Jan 23 565 56 64 82 93 23 - 33 17 - 19 12 - 7 10 - 1
_Jan 22 567 68 70 83 93 22 - 21 14 - 11 12 - 6 11 - 1
_Jan 21 569 72 76 86 92 54 - 8 40 - 6 38 - 3 31 - 1
_Jan 20 564 60 71 85 90 26 - 10 16 - 11 14 - 4 14 - 0

Semiconductors (129 stocks)

_ percent stocks over MA highs/lows highs/lows highs/lows highs/lows
_ market SOX 10 d 21 d 50 d 200d 5-days 10-days 20-days 65-days
_----------------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---------- ---------- ---------- --------
_Feb 3 508 10 19 52 90 3 - 44 1 - 38 0 - 25 0 - 5
_Feb 2 506 12 27 58 90 2 - 50 0 - 46 0 - 24 0 - 6
_Jan 30 514 12 29 62 91 7 - 34 1 - 30 1 - 14 1 - 0
_Jan 29 511 11 29 61 91 6 - 83 1 - 67 1 - 27 1 - 2
_Jan 28 515 17 41 69 92 4 - 78 2 - 55 2 - 22 2 - 4
_Jan 27 517 26 59 74 94 7 - 66 6 - 42 6 - 14 5 - 3
_Jan 26 540 45 78 85 96 10 - 21 8 - 9 8 - 1 7 - 0
_Jan 23 527 33 71 82 95 6 - 56 5 - 36 5 - 7 5 - 0
_Jan 22 533 43 84 88 97 7 - 46 6 - 28 6 - 4 5 - 1
_Jan 21 541 70 93 92 98 12 - 23 11 - 12 10 - 3 5 - 1
_Jan 20 555 90 98 98 98 76 - 7 74 - 3 74 - 1 54 - 0

Networking (96 stocks)

_ percent stocks over MA highs/lows highs/lows highs/lows highs/lows
_ market NWX 10 d 21 d 50 d 200d 5-days 10-days 20-days 65-days
_----------------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---------- ---------- ---------- --------
_Feb 3 303 27 44 77 92 10 - 27 5 - 25 3 - 10 3 - 4
_Feb 2 304 23 54 80 92 7 - 24 4 - 19 4 - 6 4 - 2
_Jan 30 304 27 61 81 92 9 - 24 5 - 21 4 - 5 4 - 0
_Jan 29 299 12 54 78 92 1 - 62 0 - 47 0 - 7 0 - 0
_Jan 28 307 20 74 88 93 5 - 53 5 - 26 5 - 4 5 - 0
_Jan 27 316 49 90 94 94 9 - 22 6 - 6 6 - 3 4 - 0
_Jan 26 322 71 94 94 94 14 - 8 14 - 2 13 - 1 9 - 0
_Jan 23 309 60 92 95 94 9 - 18 9 - 9 9 - 1 5 - 0
_Jan 22 311 60 97 97 94 7 - 23 7 - 5 7 - 1 4 - 0
_Jan 21 321 85 99 97 95 13 - 9 13 - 2 13 - 1 7 - 0
_Jan 20 332 96 99 99 95 59 - 3 58 - 0 57 - 0 44 - 0

Biotechnology (110 stocks)

_ percent stocks over MA highs/lows highs/lows highs/lows highs/lows
_ market BTK 10 d 21 d 50 d 200d 5-days 10-days 20-days 65-days
_----------------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---------- ---------- ---------- --------
_Feb 3 526 42 59 79 79 19 - 23 9 - 17 6 - 5 6 - 1
_Feb 2 524 42 62 79 80 13 - 23 9 - 15 8 - 5 8 - 2
_Jan 30 515 25 61 79 80 5 - 39 4 - 27 4 - 10 4 - 3
_Jan 29 524 36 65 83 81 8 - 43 5 - 20 4 - 4 3 - 1
_Jan 28 511 43 69 85 79 3 - 46 3 - 17 3 - 6 3 - 1
_Jan 27 516 73 83 85 84 25 - 17 24 - 4 22 - 2 13 - 0
_Jan 26 527 89 85 86 85 47 - 7 45 - 3 41 - 3 33 - 1
_Jan 23 523 80 85 86 84 37 - 6 27 - 2 25 - 2 19 - 2
_Jan 22 521 71 84 84 83 27 - 19 20 - 8 18 - 7 10 - 5
_Jan 21 527 83 85 84 84 56 - 7 45 - 4 40 - 2 28 - 0
_Jan 20 516 78 83 81 82 48 - 4 41 - 2 38 - 1 25 - 1

AIQ market log (buy - sell ratios of signals for stocks >= 7 and ADV >= 75,000)

_ Unconfirmed Signals Trend Price Phase
_ market DJIA SPX OTC Universe SPX Score Phase Change
_---------- ------ ----- ----- -------- -------- ----- ----- ------
_Feb 3 10,505 1136 2066 84 - 16 82 - 18 -68 2.15
_Feb 2 10,499 1135 2063 83 - 17 80 - 20 -98 2.27
_Jan 30 10,488 1131 2066 82 - 18 80 - 20 -99 2.42
_Jan 29 10,510 1134 2068 81 - 19 80 - 20 -66 2.59
_Jan 28 10,468 1128 2077 74 - 26 79 - 21 46 2.75
_Jan 27 10,610 1144 2116 57 - 43 59 - 41 67 2.98 DOWN
_Jan 26 10,702 1155 2154 45 - 55 50 - 50 66 3.06 UP
_Jan 23 10,568 1141 2124 49 - 51 65 - 35 69 3.00
_Jan 22 10,623 1144 2119 52 - 48 58 - 42 79 3.09 DOWN
_Jan 21 10,623 1147 2142 42 - 58 53 - 47 90 3.10 UP
_Jan 20 10,529 1139 2148 42 - 58 64 - 36 96 3.08 DOWN
_
_
_ Feb 3
_ Weighted Unconfirmed
_ Action List Daily Signals
_Universe 43 - 57 84 - 16
_S&P 500 (SPX) 50 - 50 82 - 18
_S&P 100 (OEX) 47 - 53 91 - 9
_Nasdaq 100 (NDX) 55 - 45 85 - 15

link to January data
Message 19753850
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