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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: russwinter who wrote (6830)	2/3/2004 1:24:08 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Respond to of 110194

you guys are good, really good... just keep playing nice I have a feeling that each of you will be proved right one then the other unsure which first though many times in my life I have served as peacemaker some might find that hard to believe, given my tendency to flip off numbnuts & abusives I would absolutely love to serve as participating referee the debate can be hugely beneficial, provided we play nice we have wretched USTBond fundamentals on supply we have extremely favorable fundamentals on demand we have cross-currents on evidence of inflation & deflation simultaneously we have incredibly potent yield carry trade leverage involved we have strong USDollar undermine to USTBond values we have strong USTBond support via USDollar among central bankers we have extreme dependence on low rates for real estate, mortgage bonds, FannyMae debt structures, and corporate swapped debt I HAVE NEVER SEEN SUCH HUGE POWERFUL FORCES SET IN OPPOSITION history dictates that central banks and govts never win in the end, when they oppose the free market I dont believe USTBonds will be any different here given Secy Inflation Greenspasm's clear history and established history, we are gonna see more and more: - bond speculation - encouragement of carry trade participation - coercion of central bankers - reliance on distorted statistics - wrong guidance from bad economic theory - love affair with speculative economy, damage to real economy this translates to Rome burning and fiddling in my book I believe we are setting up private sector abandonment of USTBonds all while govt CB's continue support we cannot forget Easy Al's tendency to go too far, each cycle I seem to recall in 1999 the refrain "Soft Landing" we got nothing of the sort, but he thinks we did !!! this work might be worth a look, a JW article "Japan, Argentina, Weimar, or Muddle?" financialsense.com a clip: Apply strong Weimar tools within a stubborn Japan quagmire, when addicted to foreign capital, and you risk shock-ridden Argentine outcomes, not a sloppy Muddle. Differences between USA and Japan are very unfavorable, relating to currency valuation, bankruptcy ease, saving propensity, foreigner debt ownership, financial engineering, monetization techniques, basic integrity, and intervention willingness. [Japan's] most ubiquitous foreign emissaries scattered across the globe travel in the form of 1000's of Toyota pickup trucks planted in the Islamic world, South America, and elsewhere. The exact opposite is true of the United States, where empire building and colonialism invite retaliation. We seem to “walk loudly and carry a big stick bought on credit.” The flight of foreign investor capital may soon occur. just a view from a jackass / jim