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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: russwinter who wrote (6869)	2/3/2004 6:09:43 PM
From: grusum	Respond to of 110194

yes, i agree you've been way ahead of the crowd. two things i want to comment on... i think you give the average investor too much credit for seeing what is happening in the global economy. i think that far fewer investors have any idea what's happening than you think they do. i see smart people give other people credit for being smart all the time. most of the time it is undeserved. the people posting and lurking on this thread will be in the tiny minority that have a clue, in my opinion. the fact the gold has only gotten more expensive because of the dollar decline, tells me that most people aren't even aware or least concerned of the inflation dangers yet. i'm seeing price increases in finished goods, but so far they've been small. perhaps they can remain small increases for a time, while commodities rise faster. second, i think the oil demand will prove to be more elastic than you think it will. as gas prices rise, or as the economy goes into recession, gasoline demand has a good chance to fall. how far or for how long, i couldn't really guess. so even though over the longer term i see oil shortages and price increases, over the short term, i'm not willing to bet on energy (even though i know you may be right). it is common knowledge that gold mining stocks rose during the great depression, even though they too fell at first. so all things considered, i'm sticking will the PM shares for a while. your shorts will probably work out better than my PMs, but you're a more sophisticated investor and i'd be new to shorting the market, so i'll stay with what i'm familiar with until i think it's time to switch sectors. thanks for taking the time to give me your take on things. i'll feel much better when you decide to re-enter the PMs. :) best regards, -gru