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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: westpacific who wrote (6907)	2/4/2004 8:14:39 AM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

More inflation, but hey, it's only chocolate. Reuters NY cocoa called up $10-$15 on tight supply view Wednesday February 4, 7:48 am ET NEW YORK, Feb 4 (Reuters) - CSCE cocoa futures were called to open $10 to $15 higher Wednesday as London again rose and its March/May switch widened to indicate some tightness insupply to traders, floor brokers said. "March/May in London is out to 35 (pounds) over, and our nearby switch went out at $10 and traded out to $12 yesterday. This market has more on the upside with the options expiring on Friday," said one broker. Options on March 2004 cocoa futures expire on Friday and $1,650 per tonne is the next higher strike price. LIFFE nearby March cocoa (LCCH4) was up 10 pounds at 955 pounds a tonne at 7:37 a.m. EST (1237 GMT), trading 930 to 956 pounds. Second-position May was up 4 pounds at 920 pounds. Total volume amounted to 5,027 lots. On Tuesday, CSCE benchmark March cocoa CCH4> closed up $70 at $1,600 a tonne after trading from $1,548 to $1,605 which was a 6-day peak coming on the heels of Monday's 4-week low. May cocoa (CCK4) tacked on $64 to close at $1,590 and the back or deferred months settled $62 or $65 higher. First notice day for the March 2004 contract is Feb 13, so brokers expect traders to roll positions forward. Meanwhile, cocoa exports from top producer Ivory Coast's ports totaled 512,816 tonnes from the start of the 2003/04 (Oct-Sept) season to Jan 18, down 29 percent from the same period of the previous campaign, data showed on Wednesday. The figures from the Coffee and Cocoa Bourse (BCC) showed exports from Jan 1 through 18 reached 113,085 tonnes, including 14,034 tonnes of cocoa in bean equivalent exported by grinders. CSCE certified warehouse stocks rose to 1,680,072 60-kg bags on Feb 3 from 1,653,913 on Feb 2. Chartists peg support for March at $1,571 and then $1,548 with resistance at $1,605 and then $1,635. The CSCE is a subsidiary of the New York Board of Trade.

To: westpacific who wrote (6907)	2/4/2004 9:38:47 AM
From: russwinter	Respond to of 110194

<Market has topped out.> I agree. Message 19705167 The question I have now is will it do more topping, roll over, or get smashed. The key is going to be the fund inflows. We will learn alot from the AMG numbers Thursday afternoon. If Joe and Martha are a little spooked now and inflows are down to say $2-$3 billion into domestic funds, that will be a sign. If they're still hanging tough with the frantic gotta buy behavior, we will need more time. I lean toward the former though. In the stocks I'm tracking I'm spotting just constant insider dumping post-blackout period.