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Politics : Politics for Pros- moderated -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: LindyBill who wrote (27807)2/6/2004 1:48:38 AM
From: Dayuhan  Respond to of 793778
 

we will never know the truth, or close to it. The two "inside" attempts to kill Musharref have forced him over to us.

His eggs have been in our basket for a long time, but they are deeper in it now than ever. Not a terribly stable situation, and I wouldn’t bet on his long-term physical or political survival (the peace overtures towards India won’t help his standing either). Not that I’m a big fan of Musharraf’s, but the alternatives are worse.

I think we and the Paks will lie about exactly where our troops are. Borders in that area are a joke, anyway.

Expect an incident. If the opposition can’t find one, they will fabricate one, and use it to portray Musharraf as a pawn of the Bad Americans who kill innocent Pakistani Muslims. Borders may be a joke in many ways up there, but you’d be surprised at how nationalistic people in small countries can be, and what impact unauthorized foreign intrusions can have. We also have to remember that our Afghan allies are in this for their own purposes, not ours, and may very well use our operations as a cover for settling personal scores.

Remember that the Pakistani political, military, and security apparatus is riddled with Islamist sympathizers. There is nothing to be gained by thinking of “the Paks” as any sort of coherent entity. They aren’t.

It’s potentially a very unstable time, and I’ll be breathing one big sigh of relief if we get through it cleanly. Of course the timing is political, and the objective is to land a big fish – hopefully Osama – before the election, but that’s to be expected, and there’s nothing wrong with it if we can pull it off cleanly. I hope it doesn’t blow up in our faces.