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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: BubbaFred who wrote (6923)	2/4/2004 12:27:28 PM
From: philv	Respond to of 110194

Truth is in this fiat world it doesn't seem to matter if you have any gold at all. Look at the U.K. they sold tons a couple of years ago, and the pound went up after that. There are lots of countries that don't have any gold at all like Canada. The ECB has their own gold, 15% of their foreign reserves. Each country in Europe has their own gold as well. Germany and France are the biggest holders. Why would you need to hold gold when you can instead hold the US dollar which is as good as gold don't you know? <g>

To: BubbaFred who wrote (6923)	2/4/2004 12:46:20 PM
From: Louis V. Lambrecht	Respond to of 110194

BubbaFred, the ECB does NOT hold gold. National CB's must each hold at least 15% of the Euro value of gold in order to participate in the Euro currency. Countries as the "Scandinavian" and te UK are not part of the Euro, but part of the "eurosystem" (remains of the old currencies snake, the old ECU - European Currency Unit). Of these countries Norway and England have less gold than the 15% coverage entry ticket in the club. I am not aware of any national CB to have sold gold in excess to the Washington Agreement (exception being the Portugal CB who lost 90 tons in a bad forward trade, but this amount was taken from the Swiss allowance. Switzerland in not part of the Eurozone, neither from the Eurosystem). Does the EU wants to be the world's currency? NO. The reserve system of the ECB comprises gold, US Dollars and Japan Yens. If the Dollar keeps tanking, the ECB has to buy Dollars working with the BOJ on that level, but also has to buy Yens, working against the BOJ <vbg>. Some links on the "Eurosystem" here: lvlamb.itgo.com

To: BubbaFred who wrote (6923)	2/4/2004 3:23:57 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

any answer on euro and world currency has to include politics I hate politics, hate discussing it, but have some views the owner of the world currency reserve has more liberal ability to abuse that position, and issue more debt, which would be sure to be gobbled up the USA has fallen victim to that temptation in a massive way we now sell cars, furniture, plasma TV's, even homes, with almost no money down payments the world reserve currency has enabled us to destroy our economic and financial system it will never recovery, except for brief bouts of apparent health the real story with world reserve currency is political watch what happens to the USA, its president, its Congress, and its Military as the USDollar steadily slides into FOREX quicksand watch what happens to the USEconomy if & when the US$ slide is accompanied by the USTBonds crawling slowly into the Liquidity Trap, from which there is no exit as the US$ slides, as the USTBond yield drops further, the geopolitical hegemon loses his legs and weakens as the EURO takes the mantle as leading world currency, the EU leaders will be consulted first, not the US President we will be too busy fighting fires at home, might even call back military troops abroad since adventures to seize lands and resources will become too expensive other world leaders will suck up to EU leaders, trying to please them they will appeal to EU leaders for foreign aid, which can be simply printed in new EuroBonds all will curry favor to the EU a new and dangerous financial alliance (for the US$) has emerged the Arab PetroDollars are fast converting to Euros if this trend continues, then the Euro as world currency will accelerate in movement Americans are clueless as to such implications vast contracts will go to European firms, since small savings come about from sidestepped currency conversions this is worth watching also owning the strongest and most robust currency comes with a price it is the fiat currency backlash from Mother Nature - domestic industry falters, as export business weakens - wealth generation migrates from real economy to financial economy (surreal, unreal, bogus) - debts rise domestically since wealth drops but appetite for goods and the good life continue - travel to Europe will get expensive as hell, hurting resort businesses - travel from Europe will get cheap as hell, thus spawning a new age of "Ugly European" if they toss their weight around (they have a long way to go to catch up to American Obesity) it will be very interesting to see how Europe responds will Chinese imports invade and decimate domestic industries? will consumption rise as imports get cheaper? will savings disappear as their stock markets rise? will debts rise as they did in the USA? will the real economy fade away? will Europeans use the benefits to build new industries whose capital investment will cost less, like with stateofart technology equipment? e.g. biotech, nanotech, new energy (fuelcell) or will Europeans squander the opportunity (as US did) and turn to consumption addictions? TIME WILL TELL TO WHAT EXTENT WILL EUROPE TURN TO FINANCIAL ENGINEERING? that is another key question to me financial engineering is the self-mutilating skill learned and developed by the fiat winner the next few years will be the most volatile in modern history, since VietNam I will be watching G-7 shifts, where ECB might take over from our absurdly goony Secy Snow the guy is a worldwide nitwit ECB head Trichet moves the FOREX markets now far more than Snow or Greenspasm / jim