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To: Knighty Tin who wrote (276323)	2/4/2004 5:28:56 PM
From: Box-By-The-Riviera™	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

very nice.... but then, nobody in tv land reads stuff like that so its really a feel good thang for bear types <g>

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (276323)	2/4/2004 5:37:22 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

I think it is interesting but useless. How many bears got crucified this year in puts and shorts knowing this was a false recovery? How many bond bears got crushed shorting bonds at the wrong time? He tosses out ideas but does not say when to get in or what he would do. The idea however is solid. As for me, I expect interest rates to stay low. That is the exact opposite of what he suggests. I have tons of short puts on Eurodollars, and loads of calls on Euribor. The former is a bet that US rates will not go up as much or as fast as everyone thinks, the latter is a bet that europe does not go up at all and hopefully cuts at some point. The idea that I picked that is false is exactly the oppostite of what he suggests. I Have made a killing so far in eurodollars betting the FED would not hike when every idiot under the sun thinks he will be forced to. That is the best kind of idea and he is on the other side. Now Euribor calls are hugely undervalued here. No way in hell they hike especially with all the bitching they do about the weakness of the US$. Still the futures are priced as if Europe hikes. The idea of what he said is valid, the actual ideas he threw out totally suck IMO. Mish