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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (276341)	2/4/2004 8:40:57 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 436258

Capitulate on what? Equities or Treasuries or eurodollars? Do you really think interest rates are headed higher? US? Canada? In Europe? Will Greenspan sink this economy and housing by raising rates? Answer this: Name one person that thinks treasuries are a buy: Bill Gross - no Hussman - no The bond bears on SI - no Fleckstein - no Cramer - no Minyanville - agnostic Barrons - no 57 out of 57 (was that the stat I remember?) Lance Lewis - no Mogambo Guru - no Bond allocations across the board are at all time low allocations. Who likes the things? EVERYONE and I literlly mean EVERYONE thinks intererst rates are headed up. I am taking the opposite side of that bet (with eurodollars and euribors - not treasuries). I am sort of agnostic on treasuries. Reaper (If I am not mistaken), myself, and Heinz think we are in a deflationary not an inflationary cycle, but who listens to us? Note: I think junk and corporates may get smashed but I doubt treasuries rise much it at all. In fact I think the lond bond falls to 4 and the 10 year to 3 within a year or so (just not playing it). As for equities, yes I agree, it is PROBABLY over but by no means safe to short. It will be choppy and like every other damn time bears will occasionally get blasted out of the water. With Interest rates, you buy Eurodollar or Euribor futures a year out and just wait. Euribor is a safer play actually cause not only will they not hike (and hikes are priced in) they will probably have to cut when this "recovery" stalls and/or to prevent too much appreciation in the Euro. Mish