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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: GraceZ who wrote (16725)2/5/2004 11:08:42 AM
From: Wyätt GwyönRespond to of 306849
 
We're the ones who have a strong internal economy not dependent on exports. I already know I might be the only one on this thread who believes this so you don't have to remind me.

au contraire -g-. i very much agree on this point--the mercantilist Asian model is as addicted to selling to us as we are to buying from them. that was the meaning of my tongue-in-cheek remark that i "guess the Asians are hoping that they will develop the ability to all have trade surpluses against each other". the Japanese have never developed the domestic demand and service economy we have, so they have remained dependent on us.

you look at economies like South Korea you find an enormous percentage of the working population is self-employed as we were prior to the world wars

i will have to look into this. in general, it is pretty obvious that they are trying to copy Japan's mercantilist model by charging jacked-up prices domestically (to give easy profits to domestic manufacturers) and undercutting abroad to gain market share. a lack of concern about profitability enabled them to take over the memory market, even kicking the Japanese out!

What you had here with the large number of people making a great salary working for these large corporations was a growing middle class whose great salary was inflated away by their own carefree spending

yes, and my point is, you don't need an enormous percentage contraction in income figures to have a drastic impact on the economy, due to the unprecedented leverage of US consumers and their reliance on high asset prices [equity extraction] to increase spending in lieu of reliance on income gains. the effect i am anticipating is debt deflation, i.e., net reduction of debt, either through net paybacks or liquidation. neither option is beneficial to asset prices, and the housing equity extraction model falls apart rather quickly. what's left is slackening demand on the part of the almighty American consumer. this can be seen in the declining rate of change in personal consumption expenditures.

we'll get more competitive by the painful process of becoming a supply of low cost labor

indeed. ContraryInvestor's latest issue summarizes the situation in the United States:

for the country as a whole, the average wage in contracting industries is $44,570; the average wage in expanding industries is $35,410. the average differential between expanding and contracting industries is -21%. contracting industries have higher salaries than expanding industries in 48 out of 50 states.