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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ramsey Su who wrote (7070)	2/6/2004 9:23:11 AM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

I think Ma and Pa have drained out their money markets to play risk. I have an earlier post here with a chart (from Tom McManus Bankamerica) of it. Ironic they would wait for a doubling of the Nasdaq to do so. Going to be hard to feel sorry for them. I'm using these liquidity indicators more and more. You have to plug in the supply numbers too though. The other factor at this stage are aggressive "online traders". Of course this would pick up your margin buyers. I have located an indicator of their activity called the Ameritrade Online Investor Index. wired.com I'm not aware of a site besides Ameritrade that has this data, but I get it from a friend with an acoount there. This tracks this crowd daily. They bought aggressively all though January. Even when the market broke they bought the dips. On the 1/28 drop they were 68% (meaning 68% of all their trades were buys). 1/29 they were 70%, and only on 1/30 and 2/2 did they cool off to 58, 57. They went right back to it on 2/3 and 2/4 at 73, and then 81. 2/5 they were at 61. Online traders play almost exclusively play tech stocks. In fact on Thursday 34% of their total purchase activity was in two stocks, INTC and CSCO. If you wanted to track the pocketbook health of this crowd, those two stocks would probably suffice. They are the dipsters that Fleckenstein speaks so much about.