Bush Prepares His Electoral War Machine
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By Philippe Gelie
Le Figaro
Thursday 05 February 2004
The President, showing his worst popularity rating since the outset of his term, is hoarding his resources for the final face-off.
The American President is going through a bad patch. The attacks by his Democratic opponents, the suspicions fabricated intelligence was used to justify the war in Iraq, a budget deficit of worrying proportions have earned him the worst ratings of his term: his approval rating has suddenly slipped below the 50% level, and, if the election were held today, John Kerry would win by 53% to 46%.
However, the election won't take place today. Between now and the November 2 polling, one element, now invisible on the political scene, will go into action: the formidable electoral war machine perfected by George W. Bush. To begin with, the candidate can count on his party, unified as never before: not only does he not have any rival in the primaries and may therefore spare his resources for the final face-off, but also 90% of Republican militants support him without hesitation. That support has been transformed into a powerful network from which the President has profited to raise a colossal war chest: now more than 130 million dollars, undoubtedly 200 million dollars by Election Day, more than any White House candidate has ever had in hand. On the other side, John Kerry has painfully raised only 30 million dollars by now, most of which he has spent in primary battles.
With these resources and the advantage control of the White House affords, George W. Bush's campaign team, installed in Arlington, in the Washington suburbs, has launched a long-term strategic plan. It includes recruiting three million new Republican voters in a half dozen key states where a large turn-out could tip the scales to one side or the other.
In Florida, Ohio, Iowa, Oregon, Arkansas, and Illinois, the candidate's general staff has set county-by-county targets, recruiting and training 5,500 delegates. These are supposed to put an army of volunteers into action to do door-to-door canvassing to bring Bush electors in on the fateful day. In the Arlington general headquarters, the electronic data base already counts six million email addresses, ten times more than the "populist" Howard Dean structure.
The experienced strategist and methodical thinker, Ken Mehlman, 37 years old, director of the sitting President's campaign, has emphasized organization first. Close to Karl Rove, Bush's main political counselor in the White House, Mehlman has surrounded himself with a 160 person team discretely housed in a two-story brick building on the other side of the Potomac.
Among the notables there are Mary Cheney, the Vice-President's daughter who was previously at the State Department, and polling specialist Matt Dowd, from Texas. The first mission of this general staff was to assure the candidate's financial solidity, considered a decisive tactic. A sort of brotherhood has been created on the model of a Boy Scout troop, classifying funds donors and fund raisers into ranks: there are Bush's "Sharpshooters", "Pioneers" and "Rangers" (Guides who raise $200,000 or more). In total, twelve pages of names distributed throughout the country.
This system has proved effective, for example, at enlarging the Republican President's support in the Jewish community, preponderantly Democratic, but which today includes several rich patrons among the "Rangers". Thirty-one percent of Jews will be prepared to vote for Bush in 2004,compared to 19% in 2000.
When this winning machine gets going, John Kerry or any other Democratic candidate will feel its passage. The Democratic candidate can expect to be subject to an avalanche of murderous TV spots and an army of researchers excavating his past at the least hint of a rumor or the slightest stain. If he doesn't have solid enough guts to fight back as Bill Clinton did in 1992, he won't be able to count on Bush making a false move.
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Translation: Truthout French language correspondent Leslie Thatcher.
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