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Politics : Politics for Pros- moderated -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: LindyBill who wrote (28144)	2/9/2004 2:27:29 AM
From: Dayuhan	Respond to of 793801

I don't either, but this move is to start our "Divorce" from South Korea. Any quick move on our part out of the country would be destabilizing. The risk, of course is that a move away from South Korea might be misinterpreted as an act of fear or a conciliatory gesture by the North, and might encourage further adventurism, not that much encouragement seems needed. I think I mentioned in a post to you that South Korea got very very upset with that Richard Halloran article I posted to you. The speculation really hit a nerve… They don't want us to leave. The SK military and a fair number in the government and the upper reaches of the business community don’t want us to leave. They are a bit caught between a rock and a hard place, though, as they are constrained to a large degree by public opinion (ain’t democracy a bitch?). I noticed a small news item the other day about a US serviceman who killed a Korean woman in a drunk driving incident being turned over to Korean authorities. Fairly obvious gesture to placate those with sovereignty issues. The guy probably doesn’t deserve much sympathy, but I wouldn’t want to be in his shoes. Our Military wants the base there. Why I don't know. It is a hardship post. There’s a strong reflexive resistance to giving up those footholds, especially since there is little likelihood of gaining new ones in Asia. The current trend is toward reducing foreign bases, but trends change, and the bases might not be available again if we want them back. Given the situation with NK, I don’t think it would make sense to pull out completely: it’s just too likely that we would want to get people back in. It would make sense, though, to scale back the troop presence dramatically. It’s the sort of place where we want to quietly pre-position a lot of gear, then move all but the most essential people out. That way we reduce our visible footprint, but we can establish a real presence quickly if it’s ever necessary or desirable.