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Politics : Support the French! Viva Democracy! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: epicure who wrote (5064)	2/6/2004 9:09:42 AM
From: Dale Baker	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 7834

There is a consistent 50% of the American public that clearly doesn't like the guy: zogby.com The right candidate can tack on another 4-5% and win going away thanks to the electoral college system. Yet the process has moved to some surprising rhythms this year, independent analysts maintain. Karlyn H. Bowman, who studies public opinion at the American Enterprise Institute, said she has been surprised how transient the bump up in Bush's standing after the capture of Saddam Hussein in December proved to be, as well the velocity with which Democrats have improved their standing. "It's an amazing turnaround from a few months ago," she said. Douglas Sosnik, a strategist for President Bill Clinton's reelection bid in 1996, said he has been surprised by what seemed like the sluggish reflexes of the Bush White House. He believes that retired Army Gen. Wesley K. Clark, because of his military background, has had particular impact with his caustic criticism of White House Iraq policy, and that most of the Democratic barrage has not been answered in any well-organized way. From outside, he said, it appears Bush's team decided a year ago on what then seemed like a sensible strategy -- let Democrats tear one another up in an intraparty battle, then swamp the winner with an ocean of advertising -- but "they have not adjusted to circumstances." Most striking, Sosnik said, were a State of the Union speech and a budget that had many items evidently calculated to please the GOP's conservative base but not projected out to the nation. In 1996, Clinton went ahead of Republicans for the first time with his State of the Union, treating the address as his announcement speech and aiming it expressly at independent swing voters. He never fell behind in the polls from that speech through Election Day.