To: Kenneth E. Phillipps who wrote (536432 ) 2/6/2004 10:32:22 AM From: Hope Praytochange Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 769670 A Strong Headline Number, But Mixed Details:kenny,you have a lot to learn Benchmark revisions show that the 112,000 gain in January payrolls was the best since December 2000. The revisions to April 2003 trough December 2003 only marginally changed net job gains: 123,000 jobs were added to the April through December period. The revisions did, however, alter the shape of the trajectory: November and December were revised up, October through August were revised down, and July through April were revised up. The new trajectory shows a gradual pick up in job growth as opposed to the more volatile path traced by the pre-revision data. The details were mixed. Temporary hiring, a leading indicator of payroll growth, declined after several months of healthy advances. At the same time, the work week, which also foreshadows job growth, was up 0.2%. Rising payrolls and an advancing workweek pushed up aggregate hours worked 0.8% during the month. Another disappointing aspect was the decline in the monthly diffusion index, which measures of how widespread job gains have been. The index fell below the 50 threshold in January and December (according to revised data) and worse still, the recent trajectory has been a declining one. (A reading below 50 indicates that more industries are losing jobs than are gaining; a reading above 50 suggests the opposite). December marked the 41st consecutive monthly drop in manufacturing payrolls, albeit the pace of decline is now much lower. The manufacturing workweek also increased in December. The unusually strong readings on the employment indices of the purchasing managers' surveys suggest that job losses in this sector will abate soon and modest gains are imminent. The unemployment rate also edged down to 5.6%. Both the labor force and the number of employed rose during the month; the latter, however, rose by a greater amount pushing down the unemployment rate. The revisions have clearly not settled the recent dichotomy between the household and payroll data.