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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Chispas who wrote (7152)	2/6/2004 5:00:18 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 110194

Regarding the reported growth (lie) in Non-Farm employment today. BTW, I think we should just start calling the Dept of Labor-Bureau of Labor Statistics (DOL-BLS) just DOL-BS, for short. In summary, the DOL-BLS said employment GREW by 496,000 (plus 496,000), but actually it SHRUNK by 409,000 (minus 409,000). They also moved 210,000 to 432,000 people out of the labor force, depending where you read on their press release. How did your Government lie to you this week? THEY CHANGED THE WAY THEY CALCULATED THE DATA IN JANUARY, BUT NOT DECEMBER. THEN THEY PUT A SMALL (note 1) AND BURIED THE EXPLANATION ON PAGE 6. Table A. Major indicators of labor market activity, seasonally adjusted (Numbers in thousands) ... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Dec 03 . . Jan 04 [Dec-Jan change - See Note 1] Civilian labor force..... 146,878 - 146,863 = 422 . Employment............. 138,479 - 138,566 = 496 . Unemployment.............. 8,398 - 8,297 = -74 Not in labor force....... 75,631 - 75,298 = -210 note 1 Changes in household data levels reflect an adjustment to remove the effect of updated population controls. See the note on page 6 for more information. Page 6) Adjustments to Population Estimates for the Household Survey Effective with the data for January 2004, updated population controls have been used in the household survey. ... Official population and labor force estimates for December 2003 and earlier months will not be revised. To assess the impact of the updated population controls on trend growth, however, December 2003 estimates for selected data series (not seasonally adjusted) were recalculated using the new controls, and the differences from estimates based on the old controls are shown in table C. The adjustments decreased the estimated size ... of the civilian labor force by 437,000, and of employment by 409,000;... Table C. Effect of the revised population controls on December 2003 estimates by sex, race, and Hispanic or Latino ethnicity, not seasonally adjusted (Numbers in thousands) (my note-Only totals shown, not individual race data) ... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Total Civilian labor force .... -437 . Employed................ -409 . Unemployed............. -27 Unemployment rate....... .0 Reference: bls.gov I applaud those that have got this far. (clap -clap-clap) The DOL did not do a Non-farm employment projection for the real values in Table C, but I can assure you -409,000 employment would not be translated into a positive value. I guess that's why they didn't do the projection.