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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: russwinter who wrote (7197)	2/7/2004 11:33:29 AM
From: ild	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 110194

<<<Interestingly the Ameritrade online crowd sold the Friday rally>>> Russ, I have Ameritrade account and watched their "Ameritrade Online Investor Index" when they started publishing it. ameritradeindex.com Very shortly I discovered that it was 100% useless. Ameritrade crowd always buys dips and sells rallies. I did not watched them during market bottoms in 2002 and 2003 (because I didn't know they were bottoms -g-). I'd think that when they didn't buy the dip it would be close to the bottom. Again Ameritrade index is a sampling of the lowest strata of retail investors.

To: russwinter who wrote (7197)	2/7/2004 11:45:03 AM
From: Crimson Ghost	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Russ: I rate the recent weakness in junk bonds as the most important bear signal in a long time. Unless junk reverses hard and fast, stocks are going to follow very soon IMHO. The pattern of this market is that every 2-3% dip is aggressively bought. I have opined before that this market must either continue to surge or decline SHARPLY. With many expecting a correction soon, my take is that it will not happen. When this thing turns, it will be much more violent that the modest correction many expect. Something more like a mini crash. The idea that the market will allow all those waiting to sell on the first sign of real weakness an easy out is absurd IMHO.