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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: russwinter who wrote (7211)	2/7/2004 3:02:16 PM
From: Silver Super Bull	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

RW, RE: "The problem is going to be timing the seize up (and subsequent bust), which is going to wreck the global economy." Do you have any thoughts as to how long the boom will last? My thoughts are, that if this is the start of a hyperinflation, that it could last for a long time (years) and we could see some truly wild prices across the spectrum of both raw materials and finished goods. Of course that is conditional on a hyperinflationary environment. DB

To: russwinter who wrote (7211)	2/8/2004 1:57:44 PM
From: justwhatuwant	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

<If I see commercials long something, I'm going to jump all over it. Right now that's natural gas at plus 8,341 contracts.> I find the NG lgspec position much more interesting at this time. (Note: I compile futures COT data and do not include futures options, so my data #s may be different than yours). They were net short 52684 contracts on 11/18/03, the biggest net short position in the last 3 yrs (they were net short 62643 on 01/22/02, a significant bottom). On 12/09/03 they got caught with their pants down on the huge jump in NG futures. Since then they have started to build their short positions once again (now are 33461 net short). They have some nice profits in the last few weeks and after that whipping in Jan, they may be ready to take their profits. If they go more short in the next week or two, we have another nice setup.