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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (7309)	2/8/2004 10:29:55 AM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

The guy is right but "Old Europe" disdain of the US is at such proportion that they would not buy US agency debt even that they risk that their economies may run back into recession

To: mishedlo who wrote (7309)	2/8/2004 10:46:53 AM
From: Louis V. Lambrecht	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

mish - already told you ECB cannot afford to cut rates. Now Herr Sinn of IfO wants the ECB (in fact, not the ECB, the ESCB including Scandinavian countries and UK) to sell Euro and buy USD. Fine, Japan is a big buyer of USD now. This said, ESCB selling Dollars will work against the BOJ. Euro is not a reserve currency: Euro presses cannot run yet, some treaties have to be called off (i.e: "stability pact"). Europe buying Dollar to Japan is a nice way to waste money for nothing. While Asian countries are diversifying their reserves and be buyers of Euros. Here also, I doubt that selling Euros will have a big impact as buyers exist. Of course, when the charter of the ESCB will be modified (and it has to be modified if the currencies start their competitive devaluation) things could be different. Meanwhile, BOJ is selling Yens to buy Dollars for months, and this is not helping the Yen to drop.

To: mishedlo who wrote (7309)	2/8/2004 12:29:17 PM
From: BEEF JERKEY	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

One thing that is ultimately going to trash the US dollar is the rest of the world is going to get sick of buying them simply to support it's relative value. Most Central Banks are stuffed with more US currency they need. I would thnk that at some point they would like to exchange them for something worth while. Also I would think the rest of the world would start to resent supporting the US consumer. A lot of Central Bank gold has already been sold to buy US dollars - is that still a viable option or one places like Europe want to pursue?