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To: Sam Citron who wrote (7742)2/8/2004 4:05:51 PM
From: Return to Sender  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 13403
 
OT: I read what Sir John Templeton had to say and I agree. I also agree with what you just wrote too.

Concerning ASYT; I am not saying that ASYT could not be one of tomorrow's, or even this week's, biggest winners.

It could be a big winner short term.

But I believe that you are more concerned with fundamentals than I am so when I tell you I am unimpressed with the current fundamental picture for ASYT I know you must see the comparative troubles in spades.

Technically the rally that started last week in the market so far looks like a rebound from a short term oversold condition. A rally without a great deal of support in the form of actual volume.

The semiconductors however are at least leading again and with fairly decent volume on Friday. So if you have a short term horizon you might do quite well with ASYT. A few more days like Friday and we will quickly arrive at an overbought condition which may not be well supported by the market in general.

I just read that the current rally has now gone grown to be the 14 longest ever without a 5% correction of the major averages. Sooner or later this rally must correct at least that much and when it does our favorite technology stocks, even the large well capitalized ones with zero debt, will correct more.

My thinking is that we play this rally for another trip up to near an RSI of 70 for the SMH and then run for cover. It may not get there so anything bought now should be watched very carefully to protect profits.

There will be a better buying opportunity in the future.

That is the beauty of corrections in the market, especially when applied to cyclical industries, even cyclical growth industries.

A final note on ASYT. This is a stock I would love to own at the bottom of the next cyclical sell off which some might argue will not be seen for many years. That's just too much optimism for me to swallow.

JMHO, RtS