Nations take note of China's growing role
Paul-Marie de La Gorce: Nations take note of China's growing role
| Special to Gulf News | 08-02-2004
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Is China on the way to becoming a major player on the international stage? The French President, Jacques Chirac, believes so, or at least foresees such an eventuality.
That was the reason behind his invitation to the Chinese President Hu Jintao, and for the recent visit of the latter to France. Paradoxically, it was also the reason behind the strong criticism that this initiative attracted: criticisms relating to the human rights issue in China, no longer carrying much weight.
Chirac unequivocally mentioned human rights and even referred to them in the official communiqué published at the end of the talks. As for his opposition to the plans for a referendum in Taiwan over the island's independence, nobody, not even the American government, wants to see the delicate balance of the region disturbed, possibly provoking a crisis with unforeseen consequences, when a peaceful and gradual evolution may still be reasonably hoped for.
In reality, the criticism was equal from both the right and the left wing parties (it was a socialist government that sold large numbers of frigates and combat aircraft to Taiwan). They do not wish to see France draw on the international role played by China for its foreign policy. For some, this is because they are towing the American political line and for others, it is because they still oppose the stand that France took against the Iraq war, and the independence it thereby demonstrated.
The course of action undertaken by France has its origins in the crisis started by the war against Iraq. The French government, which was against this war, wanted to avoid any legal or political sanctions that might be imposed by the United Nations. It therefore let it be known that it would use its veto against any resolution sought by the United States to confer this sanction, and obtained the support of Russia.
China then adopted the same position, and the more reluctant countries on the Security Council made it clear that they would not vote for the American resolution either which, in the circumstances, was withdrawn. This was a remarkable change of position on the part of the Chinese government: hitherto it had always abstained during Security Council votes on issue concerning the Middle East.
What are the conclusions that can be drawn from this? The Chinese leadership makes no secret of the fact that it still considers the US as its main partner. They know that their dominance of the international stage is unique, and that all matters of major consequence must be debated and negotiated with them, starting with the crucial problem of Sino-American economic ties.
But they do not particularly wish to maintain their position of unique supremacy, and therefore, are currently seeking to re-establish the balance in international relations. To this end, China and India have buried all territorial disputes and put an end to all forms of conflict between them.
In the same fashion, China has put aside former ideological differences and border squabbles and made Russia its principal supplier of military equipment. Thus did President Hu Jintao clearly respond to Chirac's political overtures.
In fact, this Chinese policy is a response to the way in which American policy has been conducted. Since the end of the Cold War, the main aim of this policy, clearly delineated in numerous official and public documents, has been to prevent the emergence of a rival power such as the former Soviet Union.
The American leaders, subscribing to the unanimous view held by their experts, believe that China alone has the demographic, geographic, strategic, and – increasingly – the economic conditions that will one day make it a superpower.
In documents produced by the Pentagon, China is already qualified as a "peer competitor". This concern is very important in forming American strategy, which is to deploy a series of bases, military quarters and staging points for ground, air, or naval forces, thereby partially surrounding Chinese territory: in South Korea, Japan, the Philippines and Central Asia.
The US is also to carry out a programmed deployment of an anti-missile system capable of disabling the Chinese rockets, still relatively limited in range, carrying the nuclear warheads with which China is equipping itself.
But American policy goes further. In Washington there is a very influential lobby that wishes for these military measures to be accompanied by a political and economic dialogue and so remain central to the policy being pursued with regards to China. Any conventional war against the latter is indeed inconceivable, if only because of its geographic and demographic extent.
Furthermore, any preventative action against the development of Chinese dissuasive nuclear forces, adhering to the American doctrine of pre-emptive action, would probably fail to be definitive and would trigger a backlash of crises with unforeseeable consequences. The logical conclusion is to make dialogue with Beijing the foremost priority.
France and the US have, in their own ways, taken into account this new historical twist: yes, China is, and will increasingly be, a major player on the international stage.
Paul-Marie de La Gorce is a French writer and journalist on Middle East problems and strategic international affairs.
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