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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (7398)	2/8/2004 10:05:15 PM
From: philv	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

You look like a genius Mish focus.comdirect.co.uk focus.comdirect.co.uk Looks like G-7 was a big bust for US FX so far. Here's gold at this same time. focus.comdirect.co.uk Who'd a thunk it? So, where do we go from here? US dollar down, interest rates down, gold up????? Or will there be some surprises after all?

To: mishedlo who wrote (7398)	2/8/2004 10:39:11 PM
From: BEEF JERKEY	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

Mish: Heres my 2 cents: I don't think the Europeans, or Americans care if the dollar slides longer term. Japan and Canada on the other hand would like to see a stronger dollar. Nobody cares about them though. Japan is a toasted bagholder who better learn how to export more to Europe and Canada will have to adjust quickly. Canada has a fairly diversified economy, should do OK long term. What annoys the Europeans is the quickness of the move by the dollar. It's hard for an industry/exporter to adjust to changes of almost 10% over 2 months like we saw in Nov - Dec. But I think they see a lower dollar as an inevitability and plan to adjust over time. If the dollar falls quickly there will be interventions. Good chance of a European rate cut to slow a further rapid dollar fall and if the Americans got there way in a call for more growth. You may have to see the drop to get the rate cut though. Gold, silver, oil etc. should continue to do good under this scenario especially in US dollars.