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To: Lizzie Tudor who wrote (176978)	2/10/2004 7:43:37 AM
From: Amy J	Read Replies (6) \| Respond to of 186894

Lizzie, Your proposal would shift maybe more than 50% of hightech's current USA headcount overseas. Something like 70% of Intel's revenue is overseas while 70% of its global headcount is here. Microsoft has a similar story (majority revenue earned overseas while well-over majority headcount is in USA.) Do you really want what you are asking for? RE: "USA economy is adding fewer jobs than the nation of Canada" But I hear you, something weird is up. It's either: * Code Yellow alert during Dec & Jan hugely impacted CEO confidence * CEOs are extremely afraid of hiring right now (CIOs say they want to wait until Q1 is over and wait until Q1 numbers are reported before they increase budgets) * terrorism gives CEOs the jitters to hire * war gives CEOs the jitters to hire * increased productivity * offshoring * Sars, bird flu, wild card stuff during strange times I think items #1 thru #5 are what's hugely impacting our job numbers: Confidence. Like Chambers said during his CC, CEOs are being unusually cautious in spending. You can extrapolate that to hiring too, which is a form of spending. Having said that, there are a couple of component shortages occurring in the industry, so there's a boom coming online. Once the CEOs recognize this, we'll see their confidence go up, and more spending & a return to hiring. But I do think offshoring will seriously impact us in about 5 to 10 years if we don't step up our schools or if the govt doesn't focus efforts on innovation. Here's an interesting article: money.cnn.com The gap between rapid growth and subdued employment is a familiar story reflecting a possible 'once in a lifetime' surge in productivity," Citigroup chief economist Robert DiClemente wrote in a note to clients Friday. "These patterns ought to normalize somewhat in the months ahead," resulting in "stronger hiring" and faster wage growth, he added. Good times around the corner? Some economists believe the current labor market is similar to that of the early 1990s. An August 2003 study by New York Federal Reserve economists suggested that the last two post-recession job recoveries have been weaker than usual because the labor market has changed. (But) The Fed study, by economists Erica Groshen and Simon Potter, suggested that most of the layoffs in the last two recessions were not temporary, as in past recessions, but permanent. ------ Regards, Amy J

To: Lizzie Tudor who wrote (176978)	2/11/2004 5:46:53 AM
From: Joe NYC	Respond to of 186894

Lizzie, You are aware of the fact that despite record profits the USA economy is adding fewer jobs than the nation of Canada, right? Out of the 112K jobs added in Jan, 72K were retail. You can take any proposition imaginable and find an arbitrary short term statistics supporting it. How about thinking more broadly. Let's say, what was the job growth in last 25 years in mature economies such as US, Canada, EU and Japan? What percentage of population in these countries is employed? Monthly numbers are just noise, economic cycle can skew the statistics significantly, so you need to average a few economic cycles to come up with something meaningful. Joe