Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lizzie Tudor who wrote (159959)	2/9/2004 9:21:23 PM
From: Oeconomicus	Respond to of 164684

According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the “active sample” of some 400,000 establishments in the payroll data covers about one-third of the total universe of such workers; by contrast, the monthly sample of only 60,000 households covers only 0.0006% of the universe of over 106 million households in the United States. There is no doubt in my mind as to which of these two surveys should be trusted. 1) No one doubts that the establishment survey reliably measures job creation in the universe of employers it samples, but that universe still does not include small businesses and the self employed. No matter how large a sample they take, they still leave out a significant portion of the economy - a portion known to create a large portion of all new jobs in the US and known to lead larger enterprises in hiring in a recovery. 2) Ask Mr. Roach if he is really arguing that the 60k sample size in the household survey REALLY has a large enough statistical margin of error to explain the 75% of the discrepancy between the surveys that he admits he has no other explanation for. Job losses were evident in a host of service sector categories that are prime candidates for offshoring — namely, accounting and bookkeeping (-18,000), business support services (-8,000), architects and engineers (-2,500), legal services (-800), and computer systems design (-600). Cherry-picking the numbers, Liz. Accounting and bookkeeping was up more in Nov-Dec than it dropped in Jan. Same with architects and engineers. Computer systems design is up from September as is legal services (like that's a good thing - sheesh!). Meanwhile, management and technical consulting was up for the month and from September. Financial services and real estate are also up as are wholesale and retail trade, transportation, construction and many segments of durable goods manufacturing. What's more, private employment is a tad better than the 112k number implies as it was held back by a 13k drop in government employment. BTW, Liz, over the last 12 months, legal services employment is up 11k, architecture and engineering is up 10k, and management and technical consulting is up 25k. Professional and business services in general (the broad category he cherry-picked) showed job gains of 235k over the last 12 months. Forgive me if I'm not impressed or persuaded by his statistical spin. PS: You can put me back on ignore now so as not to have to be confronted by facts. Bye now.