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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ild who wrote (7595)	2/10/2004 3:16:25 PM
From: ild	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

Date: Tue Feb 10 2004 09:17 trotsky (Mrw@oil prices) ID#377387: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved it's inevitable - a new, far higher price level will be established eventually. note that in the period '05-'07, several new large developments come on stream and will lessen the near term pressures on pricing and inventories. but after '07 things look extremely dicey on the supply side. how to prepare? first you must think about what it means - if the prognostications regarding the impending Hubbert peak are correct, you won't recognize the world anymore. black-outs, widespread famine, riots, a complete breakdown of the current social order, billions of people dying off...how do you prepare for that? it would probably be best to become a local warlord, in order to be able to commandeer as many resources as possible and have some manpower at hand to keep the chaos at bay. the world's vast population increase over the past 200 years is entirely a function of cheap energy being abundant - without it, the population increase will be reversed dramatically. it becomes less a question of financial preparation iow, but rather a question of preparing for mere survival. note that the division of labor as we have come to know it would immediately break down along with modern means of transportation. so it might be best to be in a rural area to be able to produce food for oneself for instance. as Jay Hanson has remarked, energy production is not a perpetual motion machine that depends on the 'price' of energy alone - here's the paragraph illustrating this nicely: "Imagine having an automobile with a ten-gallon tank, but the nearest gas station is eleven gallons away. You cannot fill your tank with a trip to the gas station because the trip burns more gas than you can carry -- it's impossible for you to cover your overhead ( the size of your bankroll and the price of the gas are irrelevant ) . You might as well plant flowers in your auto because you are "out of gas" -- forever. It's the same with the American economy: if we must spend more-than-one unit of energy to produce enough goods and services to buy one unit of energy, it will be impossible for us to cover our overhead. At that point, America's economic machine is “out of gas” -- forever. "