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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: patron_anejo_por_favor who wrote (7605)	2/10/2004 7:47:46 PM
From: ild	Respond to of 110194

Will SP500 follow Nikkei? finance.yahoo.com

To: patron_anejo_por_favor who wrote (7605)	2/10/2004 9:41:38 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Respond to of 110194

I fully expect chaos, shortages, rolling blackouts, riots 30-40 years ago, would you believe the press would avoid drive-by shootings, homeless, crackhouse shooters & whores, schoolkid murders, urban gangs sporting colors, drug war executions, and other mayhem ??? it is amazing how humans can be conditioned to ignore the ugly underbelly we had 500,000 Rwandans slaughtered we had tens of 1000's of Nigerians killed nobody lifted a finger hardly anybody gives a shit about Colombia and its total govt-less chaos dont worry, we will find a way to look the other way while many profit in selling stuff in short supply / jim

To: patron_anejo_por_favor who wrote (7605)	2/11/2004 12:03:36 PM
From: ild	Respond to of 110194

Date: Wed Feb 11 2004 11:26 trotsky (stock market) ID#377387: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved there are now even more indications that the 2003 rally was probably a 'b' wave in Elliott parlance of a bigger bear market. specifically, there are certain sentiment surveys, like e.g. Consensus Inc.'s bullish consensus, which have hit new all time highs in their bull percentage ( 81% in this case - normally, anything over 60% or so is considered 'danger territory' ) . if i remember my Elliott correctly, 'b' waves are often characterized by the bullish consensus near their top exceeding the consensus in evidence at the top of the preceding bull market. i must add though that the evidence is not 100% conclusive, insofar as not ALL sentiment data are at fresh extremes. also, there still are many individual stocks that exhibit bullish chart patterns as well as bullish positioning data ( i.e., put/call OI and short interest ratios ) , which clearly is favoring the bulls. the question basically is, which set of data will win the day? one possibility is a compromise situation - for instance, a 10% correction, followed by one more rally to marginal new highs, and subsequently the beginning of the 'c' wave of the bear market - the truly horrendous grind down that will finally destroy the vestiges of bullish sentiment that have survived the 'a' wave. the best argument supporting the idea that the '02/'03 lows have NOT put in a long term bottom is indeed that market participants were NOT in despair - there never was the type of concern or complete indifference ( indifference can be gleaned by a collapse in trading volume ) that defines long term bottoms. even if one acknowledges that one can't do a Prechter and become a 'shout from the rooftops' bear right here and now with great confidence, one is only left with the question of 'when will the 'b' wave end and the bear market resume', i.e. it's merely a question of timing ( important i admit ) , but not one of principle - i.e. the probability that the secular bear has been vanquished seems to me is very low. the consensus furthermore states that the market can't fall in an election year - a very suspect consensus imo, after all, 2000 was an election year as well. certainly speculators have spent most of December and January loading up on equity call options, and have shunned puts...so the end is probably a lot closer than generally assumed.