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To: ldo79 who wrote (7609)	2/10/2004 8:49:15 PM
From: russwinter	Respond to of 110194

Another reduction in grain stocks, from very low, to even lower, multi-decade lows in fact, tick, tick, tick: USDA supply/demand revisions reinforced ideas of tight global stocks and increased demand for US corn. The domestic ending stocks number was pegged at 901 million bushels which is a reduction of 80 million from the January estimate.

To: ldo79 who wrote (7609)	2/10/2004 8:51:08 PM
From: russwinter	Respond to of 110194

Another reduction in grain stocks, from very low, to even lower, multi-decade lows in fact, tick, tick, tick: USDA supply/demand revisions reinforced ideas of tight global stocks and increased demand for US corn. The domestic ending stocks number was pegged at 901 million bushels which is a reduction of 80 million from the January estimate. Wheat: The forecast for domestic ending stocks was reduced by 25 million bushels to 534 million. The increase in the USDA export estimate was a positive today and adds confidence to demand bulls. In addition, the estimates for global ending stocks were decreased by 1.3 million metric tons.

To: ldo79 who wrote (7609)	2/10/2004 8:53:34 PM
From: russwinter	Respond to of 110194

Another reduction in grain stocks, from very low, to even lower, multi-decade lows in fact, tick, tick, tick: USDA supply/demand revisions reinforced ideas of tight global stocks and increased demand for US corn. The domestic ending stocks number was pegged at 901 million bushels which is a reduction of 80 million from the January estimate. Wheat: The forecast for domestic ending stocks was reduced by 25 million bushels to 534 million. The increase in the USDA export estimate was a positive today and adds confidence to demand bulls. In addition, the estimates for global ending stocks were decreased by 1.3 million metric tons. Soybeans: Although the report increased the estimated Brazilian production to a record 61 million metric tons, the post opening rally illustrated recent weather events and the rust could lead to a lower estimate on the next report. The higher production number brought the global ending stocks up by over a million tons up to 37.47 million metric tons.

To: ldo79 who wrote (7609)	2/10/2004 9:59:03 PM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

The full Korean Times trainwreck news item. Notice last paragraph on strong exchange rates. Key to surviving this: Korean Times By Kim Tae-gyu Staff Reporter Skyrocketing raw material prices may pose a serious threat to the economy combined with scarcity of industrial resources, market analysts cautioned on Sunday. They said domestic brick-and-mortar firms had a hard time in procuring raw materials and predicted an industry-wide crisis in the coming months due to the price hike. Medium- and small-sized companies, which are vulnerable to external shock, are expected to be the first victims of the anticipated crisis, as many of them are likely to stop operation should the high-flying price trend continue. Even more damaging are predictions the soaring input costs will trigger price hikes for other products across the industry, which will dent the economy¡¯s fragile recovery. ``The hikes in material prices might delay the economic recovery by raising overall price levels and thus reduce Korea¡¯s overall purchasing power _ a vicious cycle which will weigh heavy on the economy,¡¯¡¯ experts said. They stressed the government should step in and come up with proper measures to prevent such circumstances from threatening the health of the economy. Catching Up With Rising Prices The Reuters Commodity Index, which combines prices of 17 mineral and non-iron metals, started its rally from June, 2003 at 1,416.9 and finished last month at 1,671.1. Local electrolytic copper providers have struggled to secure their basic materials as China ate up the scrap. The price of electrolytic copper also rose to $2,389 per ton last month from $1,647 in October 2003. During the same period, aluminum prices ran up from $1,474 per ton to $1,610, leading the upward trend of prices for non-iron metals, including nickel and zinc. In the case of raw steel materials like scrap and billet, their prices are outstripping even those of steel. Billet was traded at $295 per ton in last year¡¯s third quarter but its price is hovering at the $420 level of late. Petrochemical resources also joined the price inflation, as ethylene tacked on $118 per ton to $725 from last December and benzene is selling at $570 per ton from $527 late last year. However, domestic outfits have struggled to ditch ways to buffer the negative repercussions of the ever-rising raw material prices, as shown in the confrontation between steel and construction industries. To avoid heavy losses, domestic steel makers recently raised the price of steel products, but construction companies have vowed to throw their weight to nullify the measures. Government Measures to Straighten Things Up To tide over the raw material problems, the government has rolled up their sleeves, but the ongoing crisis shows no signs of letting up. The Ministry of Commerce, Industry and Energy has tried to come up with proper countermeasures against the rising raw material prices. It lowered tariffs on some import items like nickel bar and alumimium bar as well as reducing tariffs further on items imported by medium- and small-sized companies. Also included in the package is a provision for two investigation teams, aimed at settling the shortage of steel scrap as well as monitoring monopoly of them. However, experts cast doubts on the effect of such policies, saying the measures are not appropriate for grappling with the lack of raw materials in light of the real culprit of the crisis. ``The current raw material crisis was caused by China, as the country ate up all the materials to channel into their overlapping investment,¡¯¡¯ Kim Kyong-won, a researcher at the Samsung Economic Research Institute, said. Portraying the Asian giant as the ``black hole of raw materials, Kim recommended the alternative policy to cushion the impact of the crisis. He recommended to revise the government¡¯s strategy of keeping foreign exchange rates high, thus reducing the procurement costs of manufacturers.

To: ldo79 who wrote (7609)	2/11/2004 9:24:38 AM
From: russwinter	Respond to of 110194

Grain inventories can ill afford this: Reuters West U.S. Plains wheat nearing critical period Wednesday February 11, 9:02 am ET CHICAGO, Feb 11 (Reuters) - Moisture is needed soon in parts of the western U.S. Plains hard red winter wheat region as the crop is nearing a critical stage of development, said a private forecaster on Wednesday. "If they don't get any moisture, the last two weeks of February or through March, they're really going to be in trouble," said Meteorlogix forecaster Joel Burgio. Dry weather since late last summer has plagued the crop in western Kansas, eastern Colorado and in parts of western Nebraska. And there hasn't been enough snowfall this winter to help recharge soil moisture reserves, Burgio said. Farmers seeded the crop in dry soils and many wheat plants failed to emerge or were stunted shortly after they emerged. The U.S. winter wheat crop has been idle or dormant through the cold winter months but soon will be emerging from its dormant state as warmer weather begins seeping into the Plains region. "It was mostly dry yesterday with a few showers in southern Texas and there will be some light precipitation today and tonight in Texas and southern Oklahoma," Burgio said. It will remain dry this week elsewhere in the Plains, he said. Temperatures will remain below normal through the end of the week with some readings below zero (degrees Fahrenheit) expected early Thursday in the northern portion of the Plains hard red winter region. But "there is snowcover in the north" which will protect the crop from harm, Burgio said. Meteorlogix's 6- to 10-day outlook for the Plains for Monday through Friday calls for normal to above-normal temperatures. Precipitation will be normal to below normal, with the wettest weather in the southeast.