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To: Larry S. who wrote (50993)	2/11/2004 7:06:47 PM
From: BWAC	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 53068

Not talking crash are we? But if the 50PE explanations for slowing growth companies are explained away as the inverse of 2% interest rates, then any rise in the interest rate long term will begin to contract that PE. A modest return to 4% might contract the PE to 25. Thats a 50% stock price loss unless earnings ramp an equivalent amount. Ahh who cares anyway. Its all about momentum. Up and down. By the way, I saw your DIS purchase, If other suitors appear that will be a good one. Takeover price should go up. Somehow though I just don't see Disney being taken over though.

To: Larry S. who wrote (50993)	2/11/2004 9:03:43 PM
From: E.J. Neitz Jr	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 53068

Technology stocks were pummeled in 1985-86 period. Not sure what interest rates have to do with it. Now the dollar and its direction is another issue. Very similar. Prior to the crash, the dollar was falling....and foreign nations started to yank $ out of the US markets big time. Anyway, I thought that excerpt from Greenspan was telling...he is worried about foreign nations pulling funds out of US and spiking rates up beyond the fed's control. Anyway, I am not saying we are looking at a 1987 senario, just that Greenspan and his policies did zip to help us back then......many seem to think (not here) that because Greenspan is "in control" and rates are low we have "clear sailing ahead". I don't think it's that simple. Anyway, the momo will continue to the upside until.....well one thing is certain....if we are alive, we will see it. And then say ahhh.....hmmm ok.