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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: gregor_us who wrote (7797)	2/11/2004 8:25:40 PM
From: CalculatedRisk	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

lp: My feeling is JWCB's notion does not go far enough! Quoting:JWCB's "notion that a falling dollar is not curative to the US trade deficit--because we have lost so much of our industrial capacity to even take advantage of a weaker currency." If OPEC is marking to the EURO (as it appears), and most of Asia is fixing to the US Dollar, what does a falling dollar really get us? To answer this question, lets look at the numbers: For October, the trade deficit was reported as $38 Billion SOURCE: census.gov Of that $38B, about half ($19B) was with Asian countries marking to the dollar. (Some countries are fixed like China, others are trying to hold their currency to the dollar like BOJ) census.gov Another $10B was in Oil / petroleum products that is now being marked (at least it appears so) to the Euro. census.gov If every other country was "flexible", that would mean the dropping dollar only impacts about 25% of the trade deficit! If my simple analysis is correct, JWCB is optimistic! Best to all.

To: gregor_us who wrote (7797)	2/12/2004 12:12:26 AM
From: Jim Willie CB	Respond to of 110194

China gold and US trade gap are "1-yrold predictions" actually, China gold is old news from summer 2002 Dr No and Wo Fat are agents in Hong Kong securing gold for China to build up a hefty gold reserve on the QT they have been very much prominent during paper NYC bombings of gold with large strong hands lately, those hands are even stronger connect the dots in China, add in the new Shanghai Gold Exchange, and use common sense after the Chinese Govt encourages its citizens to invest in gold presto, you have a conclusion that China is planning a gold-backed yuan when the WTO agreement forces them to trade in FOREX open market next year trouble is, it will hurt their export business by then, their middle class will give them all the demand they need and they will tell the US to "eff off" old news since most of the US trade gap lies within Asia, and all Asian CB's resist heartily any currency adjustment, it is a nobrainer, and has been a nobrainer for 18 months, that the US trade gap would be virtually untouched the press & pundit morons made a big deal about the Nov trade gap going from $41B to Dec $38B rejoice if instead of a full quart of blood drains from your body each month, suddenly only 92% of a quart in the next month ??? not hardly, jim