Iraq caucus plan questioned
US report hints at move toward direct elections
By Anne Barnard, Globe Staff, 2/11/2004
BAGHDAD -- Some US officials in Iraq have begun to push for alternatives to the complex caucus system the United States has devised to form a new government, arguing that only a far more open selection process will satisfy Iraqis' growing desire to participate directly in choosing their leaders.
An American diplomat involved in carrying out the plan's early stages said in a report that the current caucus system is "fast becoming impossible to defend." Iraqis have criticized the plan, in which caucuses would select provincial councils that would in turn help choose delegates to a national assembly.
The diplomat described his concerns in a recent memo to the head of the US-led occupation authority. The report was made available to the Globe.
The memo, written three weeks before the arrival in Iraq of a United Nations team examining the possibility of holding direct elections, was one of the first indications that some US officials implementing the handover of power to Iraqis are questioning the American plan. The planned caucuses have come under fire from Iraq's most senior Shi'ite Muslim cleric, who has demanded direct elections instead.
The report acknowledges that any electoral system would face hurdles in a country without voter rolls or a current census. Nevertheless, it calls for rudimentary direct elections or much broader caucuses as a way to make the process more democratic.
The report reflects the experiences of officials in just one of Iraq's 18 provinces, and does not represent a shift in policy. But the findings from Anbar province -- Iraq's largest and one of the country's most troubled areas -- illustrate the difficulties US officials face as they try to accomplish two conflicting goals.
The officials are charged with setting up a government in time to hand off power by the Bush administration's June 30 deadline. Yet for that government to succeed, most Iraqis must accept it as legitimate. And in Anbar, the report says, Iraqis are not convinced that US-run caucuses will yield a government that represents them.
The current system is "fast becoming impossible to defend with a public that is finding its voice and wants to express its will directly," states the unclassified memorandum, addressed to Ambassador L. Paul Bremer III and other US officials.
"It is difficult to fathom how a productive political process that does not give a direct voice will lead to a stable government over the next six months," it says.
Debate over how to choose the new government is expected to intensify as the UN team, which arrived in Iraq on Saturday, assesses whether fair direct elections are possible.
UN Secretary General Kofi Annan said Monday that the team has been well received and its work "is going extremely well."
The Anbar report is one of the first public indications that US officials on the ground are open to some form of elections. The report acknowledges that it will be hard to run direct elections fairly by the deadline, as US officials have argued. But it says that in a fast-changing situation, it may be possible to find a solution.
The report is signed "Al Anbar Governance Coordinator." That position is held by Keith Mines, a US diplomat usually based in Budapest.
Mines declined to comment on the report. But speaking in general of his experience in the province, he echoed its call for a more open process.
Mines said many in the province are "somewhat torn," recognizing the difficulty of holding a valid election in less than five months. "But to satisfy the citizens of Al Anbar will probably require broad open caucuses if not some kind of rudimentary local elections," he said in a recent e-mail.
The report, dated Jan. 20, details the reaction of Iraqis who took part in US-guided caucuses to select a provincial council -- a kind of local test-drive of the selection process proposed for the national government.
Provincial councils would select some of the delegates to larger regional caucuses that would choose a national assembly.
In Anbar, residents were enthusiastic about taking part in caucuses over the past month. Groups of several dozen to several hundred chose candidates to represent geographical areas or interest groups such as lawyers, doctors, and teachers.
But participants frequently accused US officials -- who supervised the formation of the caucuses -- of manipulating the outcome.
Officials involved in the process call the discontent a positive development that shows Iraqis want a voice and are not afraid to express dissent. The caucuses, the officials say, succeeded in stoking an interest in self-government -- albeit one that makes it harder and harder to sell Iraqis on a process that stops short of a ballot.
"The message is clear: Give us our vote," said Hugh Geoghegan, the Coalition Provisional Authority's public affairs officer for Anbar.
That growing interest signals that civic society is taking hold, making "direct participation" in elections conceivable, Mines said.
The memo from Anbar also shows that the clamoring for participation comes not only from Shi'ites but from members of an ethnic minority with reason to be wary of pure majority rule. Anbar's main cities are Ramadi and Fallujah, centers of Sunni Muslim resistance to the occupation.
Bremer's spokesman did not respond to requests for comment. The official US position remains the same: The June 30 deadline must stand, and there is not sufficient time or security to hold a direct ballot by then.
Mike Gfoeller, the Coalition Provisional Authority official who oversees Anbar province as well as five mostly Shi'ite provinces south of Baghdad, said Anbar is in some ways atypical. The formation of local governments in the south has been smoother because formerly oppressed Shi'ites were enthusiastic about creating a post-Saddam Hussein government.
Anbar residents, many of whom benefited under Hussein, are now demanding representation, he said, because "they're realizing that if they don't participate they're going to be left out."
Gfoeller said he was wary of direct elections because of his diplomatic experience in Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union, where elections sometimes led to the empowerment of old-regime politicians or extremists. "It is not wise to rush into an election when you're not ready," he said.
Fareed Yaseen, a senior aide to Governing Council president Adnan Pachachi, said recently that it was appearing more and more likely that the caucus system would be broadened. He said he was intrigued by a proposal from Iraqi political analyst Leith Kubba, who suggested using draft registration records as a voter roll for men, and letting women register with any valid ID.
The Anbar report calls for "vast increases in resources" for any broader caucuses or elections. And without mentioning the UN, it says that "a neutral party to manage this process would be most welcome and would increase participation and credibility. . . . In the end the process we are wading through may be as important as the end product."
Anne Barnard can be reached at abarnard@globe.com.
© Copyright 2004 Globe Newspaper Company.
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